As global temperatures continue to climb, wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, underscoring the urgent need for more effective fire risk strategies.
Wildfires are not only increasing in number but also changing in nature - burning hotter, spreading faster, and behaving in ways that challenge conventional firefighting methods. To reduce the most devastating impacts, we must deepen our understanding of how extreme wildfires ignite, grow, and interact with their surroundings.
There is growing optimism around the use of advanced technologies - such as satellites, drones, and artificial intelligence - for early fire detection and rapid response. The logic is compelling: the faster a fire is identified and suppressed, the greater the chance of protecting lives and property. However, this approach oversimplifies a complex issue. Historical patterns show that attempting to eliminate all fires can backfire, leading to more destructive blazes over time.
A century ago, after catastrophic fires in the northwestern United States, authorities implemented a policy to extinguish any wildfire by the next morning. This strategy was supported by the emerging technologies of the time - aircraft, chemical retardants, and specialised firefighting units known as smokejumpers - and prioritised immediate suppression. While it succeeded in protecting infrastructure, it also disrupted natural fire cycles. In ecosystems like the Ponderosa pine forests, which evolved with regular, low-intensity fires, suppression led to changes in biodiversity and forest structure, and the accumulation of dense vegetation over large swathes of land. This fuel build-up made the forests more vulnerable to high-intensity crown fires, which they were not adapted to withstand - the very thing that the policy was designed to prevent.
Suppressing fires also eroded indigenous fire practices. In Australia, colonisation interrupted Indigenous fire stewardship, which had long relied on low-intensity burns to maintain healthy Country. The loss of these practices resulted in more flammable landscapes dominated by eucalyptus forests and increased the likelihood of large-scale fires. The emergence of "megafires" - those burning over 10,000 hectares - has been linked to decades of fire exclusion, compounded by climate change and urban expansion.
There has been a worldwide increase in extreme wildfires, which are defined by their high intensity and highly dynamic behaviour. These fires burn hotter and spread in ways that defy traditional wildfire prediction systems. Indeed, anecdotal evidence from fire crews in the 2019/20 Black Summer bushfires reported fires burning in ways that had never been seen before. Ember storms impacting urban areas many kilometres from the main fire and fires that create their own weather conditions are now more commonplace.
A more sophisticated, science-based approach to fire management is urgently needed, with particular attention to extreme wildfires, which pose the greatest threat to the environment and to life and property. These fires also emit higher levels of carbon into the atmosphere - including into the stratosphere - and thus constitute an important climate feedback.
More research is needed to better understand how and under what conditions wildfires escalate in different regions. Vegetation type, topography, wind patterns, and climate all play critical roles in identifying "escalation zones", where fires are most likely to grow rapidly. This understanding will help allocate resources more effectively, prioritising fires that are likely to quickly develop into a significant threat over fires burning in less volatile areas, which may be monitored and allowed to burn to help preserve ecological balance.
Improving predictive models is also critical. Current simulations often take days or weeks to produce results, whereas fire managers often need insights within minutes. Models must also be able to capture the complex interactions between fire and atmosphere, from local heat flows to broader weather systems, and deliver actionable information in operational time frames.
While new technologies offer valuable tools for monitoring and response, they must be guided by robust fire science. A faithful understanding of the hazards posed by extreme wildfires is key. A balanced strategy is essential for managing wildfires in a warming world. Over-reliance on early suppression without the most up-to-date scientific insights risks undermining long-term ecological health and community resilience.
