On October 1, the first stage of Thriving Kids begins to roll out. This new program, announced just over a year ago , is part of the federal government's sweeping changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).
Authors
- Helen Dickinson
Professor, Public Service Research, UNSW
- Catherine Smith
Senior Lecturer of Wellbeing Science, The University of Melbourne
It means children aged eight and under, who have developmental delay or autism and low to moderate support needs, will increasingly receive support outside the NDIS, through Thriving Kids. The A$4 billion program will be co-funded by state, territory and federal governments.
But this doesn't mean children are being moved off the NDIS today. Changes to NDIS access won't begin until January 2028.
So, what will Thriving Kids actually provide? And - after more than a year of negotiation, consultation and controversy - what questions remain?
How did we get here?
The government has argued there are more people on the NDIS than originally intended, and the scheme's budget is growing too quickly.
One group the government says is particularly over-represented is children under 15. They make up just under half of all NDIS participants. One in two new entrants to the scheme is under nine - many with autism or developmental delay - and across the country one in ten six-year-olds receives NDIS support.
There is also mounting concern the scheme doesn't actually serve all these young children well.
The government has argued these children would benefit more from strong, mainstream and community services, rather than an individual NDIS package.
But there wasn't much initial detail
When Thriving Kids was announced in August 2025 there was relatively little detail . This caused considerable anxiety among families and disability advocates.
Since then - after an advisory process, a parliamentary inquiry , and lengthy negotiations between the Commonwealth and states and territories - we know more about the program.
The proposed national model will combine broad, or universal, supports with more targeted assistance for children who need additional help. Support will respond to children's needs rather than simply depend on a diagnosis, recognising that children's developmental and support needs are not static but can change over time.
So, how will Thriving Kids work?
Currently, children on the NDIS are assessed individually and receive a certain amount of funding their family can use to access services such as speech therapy or visits to a psychologist.
But Thriving Kids will provide supports where children are already going about their lives: in schools and early childhood centres, as well as community spaces (such as libraries or organised sport) and health care. These are known as foundational supports.
Some foundational supports will be universal, meaning they are available to all children and families. These include providing information about child development and linking families to services.
Some universal supports will begin on October 1 - such as supported playgroups for children aged 5 and under - or shortly after, such as the Medicare-funded health check for 3-year-olds, done by GPs and rolling out in November.
Some supports will be targeted to kids' specific needs and provided by allied health professionals, such as occupational therapists, speech pathologists and physiotherapists. These will require some form of assessment to access.
Children with permanent and significant disability, including children with high support needs, will continue to be eligible for the NDIS.
State and territory governments will take the lead on designing and commissioning services that are appropriate to their local population. But Queensland is yet to sign up, so important questions remain about how this will work.
What have some of the sticking points been?
Important questions about Thriving Kids' implementation remain.
One of the biggest challenges has been working out who is responsible for providing and paying for supports outside the NDIS. This problem predates Thriving Kids.
In 2023 the NDIS Review argued the NDIS had blown out its estimates so much because states and territories had moved away from providing disability supports, forcing people to seek NDIS support.
Foundational supports - jointly funded by all governments - are meant to be part of the solution. Thriving Kids is the first program of this kind to be launched.
But while states and territories initially signed up to the federal government's new model, the relationship has become more fractious as plans have developed.
And while the other states and territories have signed on to deliver Thriving Kids and are developing plans about what these will look like in their communities, Queensland is yet to sign up .
At the moment we don't know what this will mean for younger children with low-to-moderate needs in Queensland. For example, some aspects of Thriving Kids' first stage will be rolled out, focusing on general supports. But it's unclear whether targeted services will be developed.
What do we still need to know?
The Queensland minister for disability services, Amanda Camm, has previously said the federal government has not sufficiently defined what it means by developmental delay or different levels of support needs. She argues the federal government simply wants to shift costs to the states and territories.
The Queensland government shares a concern with a number of disability advocates: that children and families might fall between gaps in services, if they're no longer eligible for the NDIS but can't get the specific support they need through Thriving Kids.
NDIS eligibility is set to tighten , with the government seeking to cut 160,000 participants from the scheme over the next four years.
So what will happen for families whose children age out of Thriving Kids - at nine - but aren't eligible for NDIS support? This is a key concern.
The kind of early intervention offered by Thriving Kids is important, but for most children their support needs won't disappear as they age.
The government has floated the idea of a Thriving Teens scheme, but there are no solid plans yet.
What happens next?
This first stage of Thriving Kids focuses on general universal supports , such as information and advice for families who have concerns about their child's development, and supported playgroups for children aged 5 and under.
From January 2027, states and territories will start to develop and roll out targeted supports. These are for children who need additional support, for example, low-cost assistive technologies or speech therapy.
The NDIS will not change its eligibility criteria until January 2028, meaning children will continue to be admitted to the scheme until these changes take place.
Helen Dickinson receives funding from ARC, NHRMC, MRFF, NDRP and Australian governments.
Catherine Smith receives funding from the NDRP and Australian governments.
