There is currently no framework for tracking and estimating the effects of foreign state disinformation campaigns on the UK, a report concludes.
Researchers from Cardiff University's Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute say most analysis of the impacts of covert information operations draws on reach and engagement metrics originally designed for marketing purposes, making any insights limited and likely misleading.
This means the UK is highly vulnerable to both over-estimating and under-estimating the impact of information campaigns, they say. Critically, this may lead to missing the longer-term 'strategic' effects that build up over time.
Lead author Professor Martin Innes said: "Without a robust methodology to quantify the many complex and varied information effects associated with different kinds of foreign state influence operations, government is very susceptible to both over-estimating and under-estimating their impact."
An improved future approach, which integrates multiple methods to capture the breadth of state-linked information manipulation, is going to be vital if UK authorities are going to be able to successfully gauge its influence on public perceptions.
The team's analysis was informed by detailed case studies of how Russian disinformation actors exploited and amplified conspiracies about the health of the Princess of Wales, and claims of 'two tier policing'. They show how difficult it is to measure the potential effects of different state-linked information manipulation threats along one consistent measure, as they are too complex, adaptable and varied.
The report's authors say operations should instead be compared across a set of common features – which include rates of reproduction; reach; resonance; reactance; and real-world impact – to develop a 'harm footprint' model. By applying a multi-dimensional approach, it should be feasible for the government to better assess the seriousness of campaigns.
Professor Innes added: "Our report demonstrates how some operations may be designed to deliver intense effects for a small number of targeted citizens, whereas others may seek a more subtle form of influence, across a far larger population and over a longer period of time."
Foreign state actors are using increasingly sophisticated and varied methods. The UK therefore needs to urgently enhance its systems for tracking these operations so that the scale and strategic impacts and effects of the problem can be fully understood.
The report, Estimating the Effects on the UK of State Information, Influence, and Interference Threats Using Digital Disinformation, Distortion, and Deception, is available to view here.
