Study abstract: Measuring affective polarization: Matching concepts to measures (10.1111/pops.70152)
Americans are deeply divided. At least that's what we've been told for years. But how divided are we really? A new review suggests the answer may depend on how researchers ask the question.
The analysis involving University of Michigan experts argues that researchers need to take a closer look at who Americans are thinking about, what they are being asked, and the political circumstances surrounding the question before concluding how polarized the country is.
For nearly 15 years, scholars have measured the emotional distance between Democrats and Republicans-what researchers call affective polarization. Yet there is still no single way to measure it, and seemingly small choices about a survey can produce dramatically different pictures of how much Americans dislike the other side.
Measuring the "Great Divide" is more complicated than asking Americans whether they like or dislike the other party.
"Researchers must consider who people have in mind-is it politicians or is it everyday voters-when they are answering questions about polarization," said Yanna Krupnikov, U-M professor of communication and media. "And the size of the gap between feelings toward their own party and the opposing side."
Using data from the American National Election Studies at U-M's Institute for Social Research, the analysis highlighted several findings:
- The question of "How polarized is the public?" really depends on how and what you ask people. For example, people seem a lot more polarized when they assume you are asking them about the politicians in the other party-but they seem much less polarized when you clarify that you are asking them about ordinary people who happen to be part of the other party.
- Polarization statistics often exclude people who say that they are independent and have no leaning toward either party. As more people identify as independent, this means that we know less about how people feel about the parties; it also means that ideas like "the public is polarized" exclude larger groups of people who don't give a party at all.
- Imbalances in political power in government could shape polarization. People may start to dislike the opposing party more when that party has more power in the government.
The data on which party is more polarized is inconclusive and inconsistent, said John Barry Ryan, U-M associate professor of political science and of communication and media.
"Across different studies, not just this analysis, and data sources, it is not clear that one side is more polarized than the other side," he said.
The study, which appeared in Advances in Political Psychology, was co-authored by lead author James Druckman, University of Rochester; Samara Klar, University of Arizona; and Matthew Levendusky, University of Pennsylvania.
