The Minns Labor Government has released the 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR).
Published every five years, the IGR examines how demographic, economic and fiscal trends could shape the State over the next 40 years. The report provides an important measure of the State's long-term trajectory.
The 2026-27 IGR provides several key findings:
State finances
- The long-term fiscal gap has been almost entirely closed, narrowing from 2.6 per cent of gross state product in the 2021-22 report to 0.1 per cent in the latest report.
- Over the forward estimates, gross debt is expected to stabilise at around 20 per cent of GSP, while the net cash operating position improves from $5.5 billion in 2026-27 to $11.4 billion in 2029-30.
- Long-term debt and service pressures will require action from successive governments.
Living standards
- Real GSP per person is projected to grow by 35 per cent over the next 40 years, from approximately $97,000 to $131,000 in 2023-24 dollars.
Housing & population
- Housing supply is responding following the post-pandemic increase in population. In the year to June 2025, NSW added around 2.7 residents for each additional dwelling-close to the State's average household size.
- Recent planning reforms, including transport-oriented development, low and mid-rise housing reforms and the Housing Delivery Authority are supporting greater density and additional housing supply.
- Treasury modelling supports the direction of reforms that allow more homes to be built in established areas. Compared with retaining 2021 density constraints, continued easing of density constraints over the next 40 years could reduce housing costs per square metre by around 24 per cent, reduce commuting costs by around one-fifth and provide benefits equivalent to approximately $8,400 in additional annual income for the average household.
Guidance for continued repair and reform
- The report also identifies pressures requiring continued attention over coming decades, including productivity growth, an ageing population, increasing demand for health services, climate risks and higher long-term borrowing costs.
- These are long-term challenges rather than outcomes locked in today.
- Their inclusion in the report provides governments with the evidence and time needed to plan, reform policy settings and improve the State's trajectory.
Other key findings of the 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report
- The NSW population is projected to grow by 12 million people by 2065-66.
- The population will become older on average , with the share of people aged 65 and over rising from 18 per cent today to 25 per cent over the next 40 years. Housing needs and public service provision will evolve in response to the changing age structure.
- The demand for skills will keep changing as new technologies transform industries and occupations.
- Poverty and disadvantage will remain significant challenges, while parental income and inherited wealth will continue to influence equality of opportunity.
- Climate impacts will impose higher fiscal and economic costs, but clean energy, green industries and new exports will create opportunities for growth.
- Government services will face rising demand, particularly in health care. Global macroeconomic conditions, including lower productivity growth and higher interest rates will add to the challenge of managing future debt levels, reinforcing the need for sustainable long-term budget management.
Note on IGR methodology
The report's projections are prepared on a no-policy-change basis. They illustrate what could occur if current policy settings remained unchanged throughout the projection period.
A decision made in 2046, for example, would still have 20 years to impact the report's final-year results in 2066. The IGR therefore, should be taken as an indicator of the direction and scale of emerging pressures, providing governments with time to respond.
The 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report is available here.
Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said:
"Improvements in the Intergenerational Report reflect our strategy of relief and reform.
"The State's outlook is far better now than it was five years ago under the Coalition.
"While our disciplined approach of paying down debt and responsibly managing expense growth is having an impact, this report shows there's still more work to be done."
