When asked to choose between bad outcomes from lockdowns, most Americans said they'd rather risk more COVID deaths than allow more child abuse, domestic violence or deaths caused by economic hardship.
A new University of Michigan study, published in the journal Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, highlights the public's concern over the broad consequences of pandemic restrictions.
Study author Terri Conley, U-M professor of psychology, said these findings matter because it shows what Americans value most when tough health decisions have to be made.
"By understanding which quality-of-life factors people prioritize, leaders can create future public health policies-especially in crises like COVID-that better balance safety with the other impacts those policies can have on people's lives," she said.
When COVID-19 hit the U.S., state governments rushed to slow the spread of the virus. Between March 2020 and January 2021, rules like "stay-at-home" orders, "shelter-in-place" mandates, and social distancing were put in place. These COVID "lockdowns" helped hospitals from being overwhelmed and may have saved lives.
But lockdowns also had a darker side. They took a toll on people's mental health, physical health, relationships and finances, Conley said. They also made it harder for victims of abuse-especially children and people in unsafe relationships-to get help or even be noticed. Job losses and business closures brought their own health risks, including deaths linked to economic hardship.
The research involved three issues that plausibly seem to have worsened as a result of the COVID lockdowns: child maltreatment, intimate partner violence and deaths associated with economic downturns.
In the case of child abuse, these circumstances not only risk confining minors with abusive guardians or cohabitors, but they also make detection of abuse-such as at school-more difficult, and restrict the ability of young people to report abuse to a trusted adult or organization, prior has research shown.
Conley set out to learn how Americans felt about trade-offs-one outcome vs. another. The study involved more than 1,000 people, ages 18 to 92, who were asked to imagine they were in charge of public health decisions. In each scenario, participants had to choose between preventing COVID deaths or stopping other serious problems linked to lockdowns: child abuse, domestic violence and deaths caused by economic downturns.
The results were striking:
- 75% chose to stop child abuse over preventing COVID deaths.
- 66% chose to stop domestic violence over preventing COVID deaths.
- 55% chose to stop deaths from economic decline over preventing COVID deaths.
- And when asked to compare preventing COVID deaths to stopping all three of these problems combined, 90% chose to stop the three problems.
The results suggest that the public may support more nuanced responses in future health crises-ones that address both disease prevention and other serious societal harms, Conley said.
