A major new study has uncovered how everyday financial behaviours—captured in routine banking data—can signal early signs of cognitive decline and financial vulnerability in older adults, up to a decade before formal intervention.
The research, published in Journal of the American Medical Association Network Open, was overseen by Professor John Gathergood from the University of Nottingham's School of Economics and David Leake at Lloyds Banking Group.
The study analysed anonymised banking records from over 66,000 individuals. It compared 16,742 individuals who were registered for power of attorney (PoA) due to a loss of financial capacity with a control group of 50,226 matched individuals without reported capacity loss.
The results reveal that subtle but significant changes in financial behaviour—such as reduced spending on travel and hobbies, increased household bills, fewer online banking logins, and more frequent requests to reset PINs—begin to appear several years before individuals are formally identified as lacking financial capacity.
These patterns provide the first large-scale evidence that behavioural data held by financial institutions can reveal the early emergence of cognitive decline."
He added: "It is a powerful demonstration of how anonymized banking data can be used responsibly to protect the most vulnerable members of society."
Key findings show that individuals with cognitive decline were:
- 9.6 percentage points less likely to spend on travel five years before PoA registration.
- 7.9 points less likely to spend on hobbies like gardening.
- 1.0 fewer online banking logins per month.
- More likely to report fraud, lose cards, and request PIN resets.
The research suggests that early-stage Alzheimer's disease and related dementias may lead to decreased engagement in self-care and out-of-home activities, replaced by increased home-based spending. Importantly, the decline in financial activity also included signs of financial errors and vulnerability to fraud.
The study calls for further research into integrating financial data with health and social care pathways—always with strict data privacy safeguards.
The findings also carry implications for public awareness of PoA registration, which remains relatively low in the UK despite growing concerns about dementia-related financial harm.
Professor Gathergood added: "As a society, we need to better support people at risk of losing financial capacity—long before the signs become obvious to friends or family. Early detection through financial behaviour may be a key part of that solution. By better understanding behavioural markers of declining capacity, banks can explore how to strengthen safeguards for customers."
