Dangerous Storms Threaten SE Qld, NE NSW

This region has already seen severe thunderstorms over the past few days, and thunderstorm activity is forecast to peak on Tuesday.

First, let's have a look at the thunderstorm forecast for Tuesday. And we can see thunderstorms are forecast over a broad area all the way from northern Australia and down the east coast of the country.

This area in yellow here does show where severe thunderstorms are possible. That extends all the way from Wollongong and the Illawarra in the south, up to much of eastern and north-eastern New South Wales, and back to central and south-east Queensland all the way as far west as about Longreach.

Through this area here, severe thunderstorms could bring damaging winds above 90 km/h, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, and large hail of more than two centimetres in diameter.

But we also do have an area of red, and this is where severe thunderstorms are likely to develop.

So having a look at that and zooming in, we can see that red area extends all the way from Sydney in the south up to the Hunter and the Mid North Coast and into north-eastern New South Wales, and then up into south-east Queensland, the Darling Downs, parts of the Wide Bay and Capricornia and all the way as far north as about Emerald.

So this red area here we could see the same hazards, but for areas north of about Port Macquarie we may also see very dangerous thunderstorms. This includes for the entirety north-east, New South Wales and the entire area in red here that you see in Queensland.

So these very dangerous thunderstorms could generate destructive winds above 125 km/h. Again, heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding and giant hail with diameter much greater than five centimetres.

So what sort of impacts could these bring? First, with larger giant hail, this could cause significant damage to property like vehicles and vegetables, vegetation, as well as injuries for those people outdoors.

Damaging to destructive winds can cause damage to trees, as well as disruptions to utilities, and heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly across parts of south-east Queensland where the ground is saturated and creeks, rivers and storm drains could fill quite quickly.

So it is important to be across the latest impacts and warnings as we head through the rest of the day. Now let's have a closer look at how the day might play out.

And what you see here is high-resolution computer model rainfall forecast. It does give an idea of what might happen, but it is important to still keep an eye on the radar and warnings through the day.

And so what we can see here, some of the late morning showers and thunderstorms already popping up across inland areas. But as we head into the afternoon, those showers and storms will become more widespread and we can start to see these orange and red blobs developing across this simulation here.

This indicates that we could see those very dangerous thunderstorms across parts of north-east New South Wales, as well as south-east Queensland and through the afternoon those cells are expected to move towards the east and out over the water, but over very populated areas.

Those storms are forecast to clear into the evening. We could still see some thunderstorms kicking around as we head into Tuesday night, but again, it's important to keep across the warnings and forecast because this is just a simulation of what might happen through the day today.

And so now having a look at that forecast for the next few days, on Wednesday, we do see the sun and storms clearing away from south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, but we could still see severe thunderstorms across parts of the Wide Bay, Capricornia regions and more broadly, thunderstorms continuing across northern Australia.

On Thursday, that trend continues. We see thunderstorms continue to clear away from Queensland, continuing across parts of the Northern Territory and back towards the Kimberley.

So much more settled conditions coming across Queensland as we head into Wednesday as well as Thursday.

And now having a day-by-day look, if we start off with Tuesday, we can see this trough here is responsible for the showers and storms through the day.

We'll see those showers and storms pushing off the coast tonight as a system moves over the Tasman Sea, and then into Wednesday, we do see showers and storms contracting a little bit further north, north of that trough there, but we do see warm westerly winds pushing across south-east Queensland.

So temperatures will really start to rise as we head over the next few days. And then to Thursday, we do see showers and storms continuing across northern parts of the country, and those dry skies continuing across the east coast.

But we could still see quite a few thunderstorms developing across parts of northern Queensland as well as the Northern Territory.

But for Tuesday itself, dangerous thunderstorms are possible across parts of the east coast including Sydney, as well as Brisbane and south-east Queensland.

It is important that you stay across the latest forecast and warnings through the day on our website and app, follow us on social media and as always, please stay safe.