Despite a challenging backdrop for the global car market, sales of electric cars surged in the second quarter of this year as the energy crisis sparked by the war in the Middle East brought fuel price volatility back into sharp focus, according to a new IEA report.
Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty - which builds on the extensive analysis in the IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 published in May - examines the latest data on car markets through the first half of 2026.
The report finds that global car sales fell by around 5% year-on-year from January through June as purchases declined in the world's two largest markets - China and the United States - amid economic pressures, higher fuel prices and changes in policy settings.
Global sales of electric cars fell in the first quarter of 2026, largely reflecting lower sales in these two markets. But according to the report, they rebounded sharply in the second quarter - rising 35% compared with the first three months of the year as second quarter sales reached record levels in 50 countries. In Australia, Brazil, India, Korea and Viet Nam - all sizeable electric car markets - sales roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period in 2025. Overall, more than 90 countries recorded year-on-year growth in electric car sales during the first half of 2026.
As a result of this momentum - together with new and continued policy support in a number of markets, including Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia - electric car sales are now expected to reach 29% of total car sales worldwide in 2026, one percentage point higher than what was projected in the Global EV Outlook 2026.
Road vehicles account for nearly half of global oil use, leaving the sector particularly exposed to fuel price volatility and supply disruptions. The sector is also a key driver of oil imports in several regions that typically purchase supplies from the Middle East. The report notes that policy and industry responses to the energy crisis - especially those related to electric vehicles - have the potential to further accelerate changes in a global car industry that is already undergoing significant transformation.
According to the report, a weaker car market in China will weigh on global electric vehicle sales across 2026. For the first time this decade, electric car sales are expected to stagnate in China compared with the previous year, even as over 60% of total car sales are set to be electric - an all-time high.
However, there is potential for global electric car sales to increase further. During the first six months of 2026, electric car exports from China almost matched the total for all of 2025. The report estimates that only around two-thirds of those electric cars have already been sold. Together with unsold exports from the previous months, this leaves more than 1 million available for sale in global markets.
Growing sales of electric cars, where Chinese manufacturers have established a particularly strong competitive position, are set to intensify competition for incumbent carmakers. This is especially evident in emerging markets where imports of Chinese electric cars have continued to grow rapidly, according to the report, which also builds on key themes from the recent IEA publication What Next for the Global Car Industry. With China and other emerging economies expected to account for around 60% of global car demand over the next decade, success in these markets will increasingly determine future market leadership.
