Biggest rise in drug-resistant bloodstream infections are expected in the over-65s and among men
A new study led by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and published in PLOS Medicine finds that ageing populations could lead to a rise in bloodstream infections caused by drug-resistant bacteria across Europe over the next decade.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global health threat. Understanding how changing populations will affect infection rates is vital for designing effective prevention and control strategies.
Researchers led by Professor Gwen Knight analysed more than 12 million blood test results collected from 29 European countries between 2010 and 2019. They used these data to project how drug-resistant bacterial bloodstream infections may change up to 2050, taking into account population age and sex.
The study found that resistant bloodstream infections are likely to increase, with differences between countries and between bacteria types. The biggest rises are expected among older adults, especially those aged 74 and above, and among men for most bacteria-antibiotic combinations. The researchers found that models which ignore age and sex may underestimate future infection rates.
Even with strong public health actions, meeting the United Nations goal of a 10% reduction in resistant infections by 2030 was only possible for about two-thirds of bacteria-antibiotic combinations studied.
Professor Gwen Knight, co-Director of the AMR Centre at LSHTM and lead author, said: "Our study shows that the future burden of drug-resistant infections won't be uniform - there will be substantial differences between countries, as well as across age groups and between sexes. We see the steepest increases in incidence projected in older age groups, particularly the over 65s, meaning that simply preventing further rises in resistant bloodstream infections would already be a major public health achievement.
"What I found most interesting was bringing together different strands of data to show the bigger picture. Age and sex are still rarely considered in antimicrobial resistance projections, yet they make a real difference to who is most affected. Combining these factors with demographic and infection trends really highlighted how challenging it will be to reverse the steady rise in bloodstream infections across Europe."
Co-author Dr Catrin Moore, said: "This is a fantastic step forward in understanding the way that age and sex will influence the burden of drug-resistant infections in different European countries in the coming years. This will help us design intervention studies focusing on the populations most at risk in the future to reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with drug resistant infections."
Publication:
Knight G, Moore C, et al. Combining demographic shifts with age-based resistance prevalence to estimate future antimicrobial resistance burden in Europe and implications for targets: a modelling study. PLOS Medicine, 2025. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004579
