Four of the most important interconnected parts of the Earth's climate system are losing stability. This is shown by an international scientific study based on observational data published in Nature Geoscience. The researchers succeeded in highlighting the warning signals for destabilization of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest, and the South American monsoon system.
"We now have convincing observational evidence that several interconnected parts of the Earth system are destabilizing," says lead author Prof. Niklas Boers from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "This means that these systems may be approaching critical thresholds that, if crossed, could trigger abrupt and irreversible changes with severe consequences," adds Prof. Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter.
The researchers' major concern is that these climate systems are not isolated. The systems interact with each other via the oceans and the atmosphere, which can lead to interactions and feedbacks. In the worst-case scenario, this destabilizes them and intensifies the negative consequences for the global climate system. At the same time, these effects could mask genuine warning signals and make tipping points even more difficult to predict.
"Unlike previous studies that focus on individual Earth system components, this new research zooms out to analyze them together as part of a larger, interconnected system," adds co-author Dr. Teng Liu, also from TUM.
Analysis using a mathematical method
While current climate models are not yet able to simulate these complex dynamics reliably, empirical data offers an important way to monitor changes already underway. To identify and track signs of destabilization, the researchers developed a mathematical method that analyzes how systems recover from disturbances. Applying this method to empirical data reveals the ongoing stability loss in key Earth system components.
"While the exact thresholds at which tipping points may be crossed remain highly uncertain, the evidence clearly points toward increasing risk as temperatures rise. With every tenth of a degree of additional warming, the likelihood of crossing a tipping point grows. That alone should be a powerful argument for immediate and decisive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions," emphasizes Prof. Niklas Boers.
Global monitoring system required
In addition to reducing emissions, the researchers are calling for the development of a global monitoring system to track the stability of major Earth system components. Satellite-based observations, particularly of vegetation and ice melt, will play a central role. This study not only underscores the urgency of building such a system, it also provides the methodological framework to support it.
Boers, Liu, Bathiany, Ben-Yami, Blaschke, Bochow, Boulton, Lenton, Andreas Morr, Nian, Rypdal, Smith: Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements, Nature Geoscience (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0
- Niklas Boers is Professor of Earth System Modeling at the TUM School of Engineering and Design
- He also conducts research at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- Researchers from institutions in Germany, the UK, China, and Norway were involved in the project
