Water scarcity is not just a matter of a lack of supply. What if there is enough water available, but its quality leaves much to be desired? And what if the interests of the various sectors - households, agriculture, industry and energy producers - also clash with each other? In a large overview study, Utrecht researchers are the first to provide an overview of these different interests, broken down by region, and of the deficits that lurk with unchanged policy. "Because otherwise, by the end of this century, almost two-thirds of the world's population will have to contend with too little water or poor quality water." They therefore argue for firmer policy. "In the end, it's not just about how much water is available, but also whether it has the right quality for its intended use."
Climate change is largely to blame for water scarcity. The low water levels in European rivers this summer speak volumes in that respect. "But water scarcity involves so much more than just a shortage of water." Speaking is principal investigator Gabriel Cárdenas Belleza. "Different sectors have different water quality requirements, and we have investigated what it means for each sector's future water scarcity if we take water quality into account. There will be a shortage in the future, but the consequences will vary from sector to sector and from region to region. Think of the US and Europe, which will see their population growth level off in the long term, with consequences for the demand for water." At first glance, this is of course good news for households. "But that doesn't mean that these areas are out of the woods," the Utrecht scientist puts it into perspective. "Yes, a reduced supply of freshwater will likely be compensated by reduced household demand. But the increased liklehood of heat waves will cause the available river water to be too warm for cooling puposes, possibly compelling power plants and factories to shut down their processes."
Competition
Cárdenas Belleza and his colleagues also looked at other global socioeconomic trends, such as economic development and population growth. "This puts increasing pressure on the available water, not only because demand is increasing, but also because the quality of the remaining water is likely to deteriorate. Because with increased pollution and a reduced water volume that results from increased water use, the concentration of any pollutants will increase. And while energy producers or manufacturers may not be so bothered by this, consumers and agriculture are even more affected. This will increase the competition for available clean water between the various sectors."
Overhaul
The research shows that a number of regions and sectors in particular will have a hard time in the future. "Of all the areas we have studied, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East have the least favorable prospects. The amount of available clean water is already not great and on top of that there is a strong population growth." The researchers calculated that this will increase the demand for water for domestic use by a staggering 1225%. "But that's not all, because an increase water use ultimately also contributes to a reduction in water quality. In the end, the actual water shortage will therefore increase to almost 2000%."
Apart from regional differences, industry and power plants will be particularly affected by water scarcity, when higher water temperatures make it difficult to cool their processes. "This ultimately raises the question of whether you should not adjust the production processes, and whether the energy sector should not be overhauled at an accelerated pace. And all of this in turn requires strong policy measures, across national borders."
