New polling this week put One Nation ahead of Labor in the primary vote for the first time, as the party's latest policy announcements signal greater political ambition.
One Nation recently unveiled its new oil and gas policy at the Australian Energy Producers Conference in Adelaide. It promises "vastly greater returns" to an electorate " rightly unhappy " with the distribution of Australia's natural resources.
While One Nation's gas policy is not entirely new, the party's growing prominence means announcements will attract greater scrutiny.
So, what is the party proposing?
Embracing government intervention
The Norway-style gas proposal is One Nation's first substantial intervention in current tax and energy policy debates. It's a marked shift away from the social and migration issues that have long defined the party.
Norway heavily taxes its oil and gas extraction profits . It reinvests the wealth into the world's largest sovereign fund to spent on social initiatives.
Echoing the Trump administration's willingness to buy into resource and technology companies, One Nation's announcement reflects a broader embrace of economic interventionism: where a government actively modifies a free-market economy.
The announcement shows a stark differentiation between One Nation and The Liberal Party on the economy. And it comes at a time when the parties have increasingly overlapped on issues like migration.
Liberal frontbencher James Paterson attacked the policy as socialist. He described it as "borrowed from Venezuela and Hugo Chávez".
One Nation's policy
Despite the splashy announcement, One Nation's gas policy was not entirely new.
Hanson has pointed to a Norway-style sovereign wealth fund as a model for gas revenue policy since at least 2017 . Senator Hanson has also frequently attacked parliament for being " hostage " to multinationals resource companies operating in Australia.
In announcing the policy, Senator Hanson committed One Nation to encouraging more gas and oil exploration and production. Hanson also said taxpayers should get a "fair share" on profits from Australian resources.
Key elements of the policy include replacing the current Petroleum Resource Rent Tax , which places a 40% tax on the profits related to the extraction of petroleum, gas and condensate.
Instead, One Nation would give the government the option to take a 30% stake in future drilling projects, with profits directed into a new sovereign wealth fund.
It's not the first time this has been suggested. Back in May 2017, Hanson proposed One Nation adopt a system of royalties paid on production, saying such a scheme would raise up to $10 billion per year.
Tapping into public grievance
One Nation's position sets it apart from both major parties.
Labor and the Coalition hold sharply differing views on energy and Net Zero .
But the two parties share common ground on one point: neither supports increased taxation measures on the gas industry, particularly amid global uncertainty caused by the US-Israel war with Iran.
With its policy, One Nation is tapping into real public grievance. Others, such as The Australia Institute, the Greens, and Independent senator David Pocock have spent years pointing out the same basic unfairness: Australia exports vast quantities of gas, companies profit enormously, and the taxpayer gets very little in return.
But the timing of One Nation's announcement deserves closer scrutiny. It was not made to a general audience but a gathering of energy industry heavyweights. Reports suggest the announced version was softened after consultations with industry representatives.
Pushing back at the 'green agenda'
Far-right parties have a distinctive approach to energy policy - they simultaneously cast multinationals as "elites" who take wealth from ordinary people, while advocating for gas drilling expansion themselves.
Hanson has adopted US President Donald Trump's slogan - "drill, baby, drill" - to spruik her party's approach to fossil fuels. And she has called on the Labor government to push their " climate change bedwetters " to the side, and expand oil and gas exploration in the interest of energy security.
One Nation blames environmental reforms for triggering an energy crisis, which it claims has cost everyday Australians. Ending net zero is, accordingly, a " massive part " of One Nation's gas policy, which they claim will safeguard fuel security.
Hanson has described One Nation's policy as "partnering with the oil and gas industry, rather than treating it as the enemy".
Internal tensions
This policy debate risks exposing potential tensions between the federal and state branches of One Nation.
Efforts by the South Australian Labor government to repeal a ten-year moratorium on fracking in the south east of the state were blocked by the newly elected One Nation MPs and Liberal Opposition.
The inconsistency between the federal party's pledge to expand gas exploration and the state branch's efforts to block it have created headaches for their leader. Hanson distanced herself, dismissing it as a decision for the state branch.
Heading into the next election, One Nation wants contrast with the Liberals on economic interventionism, while setting itself apart from Labor, the Greens and the independents on climate and environmental policy. It is calculated decision from a party that senses its moment.
Emily Foley receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Jordan McSwiney receives funding from the Australian Research Council, NSW Government, and NSW RNA Research & Training Network.
Kurt Sengul receives funding from the Australian Research Council, NSW Government, and NSW RNA Research & Training Network
