Study: Models and scenarios for solar radiation modification need to include human perceptions of risk
Human perceptions hold the key to the future of solar geoengineering and other approaches to cool our warming planet.
A new study from the University of Michigan urges the scientific community to move beyond solely focusing on the physical aspects of such approaches and to incorporate human perceptions and trust into their analyses. By doing so, researchers can more accurately predict how these interventions might impact the climate, gaining a deeper understanding of its development, deployment, maintenance and governance.
"As we continue to warm the planet and face increasingly dire consequences for doing so, researchers are starting to seriously consider approaches that might have seemed far-fetched before," said Kaitlin Raimi, associate professor at the Ford School of Public Policy. "Yet most of the research on solar geoengineering thus far has been focused on the physical effects: How much could it cool the planet What would the side effects be in terms of weather patterns? We argue that considering the human dimension of solar geoengineering is just as important."
Solar radiation modification-techniques designed to cool the earth by reflecting a portion of the sun's energy back into space-has generated wide-ranging reactions from experts and the public.
So far, SRM's development and deployment remain largely hypothetical, with small laboratory experiments underway but no widespread implementation. The absence of federal policies, contrasted with several state-level bans, underscores the critical role of public perception and political decision-making in the technology's future.
Conspiracy theories and misinformation have also contributed to skepticism, reflecting a general wariness toward such initiatives.
"If policymakers and the public are scared of this technology, they will block research on it, limiting a potentially important tool in our toolbox to address climate change. If they (falsely) see this as a silver bullet that solves climate change, they may reduce support for the emission reductions that would need to complement any solar geoengineering approach," Raimi said. "If we want to account for the full range of possibilities when it comes to solar geoengineering, we need to include people in our estimations of what will happen."
Raimi and her colleagues propose a new framework to bridge the gap between human behavioral factors and SRM's biophysical impacts. This model examines how elements like public trust, moral hazard concerns and perceived climate risks might influence SRM development and governance. Understanding these interconnections is vital for projecting future climate change scenarios that realistically incorporate both technological and societal responses.
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