Hot summers in Europe can be better predicted if an increase of the heat content in the North Atlantic is taken into account
Scorching sun: extreme heat waves will increase with climate change. More accurate forecasts months or years in advance could help to take protective precautions, especially for vulnerable people or agriculture.
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To the point
- Heat indicator in the ocean: European heat waves are often preceded by an increase in the North Atlantic heat content
- Better predictions: Model simulations that take into account the connection with the heat content in the Northern Atlantic predict past European heat waves more reliably than calculations which omit this mechanism.
- Hot summer in 2025: Calculations, which were not part of the current study, show that extraodinary heatwaves can be expect for this year's summer in Europe.
In Europe, people are increasingly exposed to extreme heat events - with serious consequences for human health, ecosystems, and agriculture. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology have developed and tested a method that can be used to improve the prediction of European hot summers up to a few years in advance.
Hot summers in Europe are preceded by a build-up of heat in the North Atlantic
A crucial clue to impending heat waves can be found in the ocean: In an earlier study, Lara Wallberg, researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and colleagues showed that anomalously warm European summers are often preceded by a build-up of heat in the North Atlantic. This heat build-up occurs up to three years before an extremely warm summer. In their new study, Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez (ETH Zurich & LSCE Paris), and Max Planck-researchers Daniela Matei, Daniel Krieger, and Wolfgang Müller have shown that a corresponding physical indicator can be used to improve predictions of extremely warm European summers.
As a kind of by-product of the current study, the researchers can also make a prediction for the summer of 2025 in this way: "Model calculations that take into account the connection between heat extremes and the heat content in the North Atlantic also predict a hot summer in Europe in 2025," says Lara Wallberg. This is in line with forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which also predict that this summer will be very hot.
