Violence linked to organized crime, economic shifts, changing migration policies, rising returns and deportations, and the growing impact of climate-related hazards are set to reshape migration across Latin America and the Caribbean, according to a new report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
The Strategic Foresight Multi-Country Overview for Latin America and the Caribbean examines how migration dynamics are evolving and identifies emerging trends that will influence population movements in the coming years.
"This is not about predicting the future, but about preparing for different possible scenarios," said Ana Durán Salvatierra, IOM Deputy Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. "In a rapidly changing environment, anticipation is essential for effective migration governance. Migration will continue to evolve. The key question is whether we react too late or prepare in advance."
Migration across the region is becoming increasingly complex and fast-changing. Movements are no longer driven primarily by traditional patterns, but are now more diverse, multidirectional and dynamic, with new routes emerging and growing pressure on border areas and urban centres.
The analysis is based on foresight exercises conducted in seven countries across the region and examines emerging signals that could reshape migration between 2025 and 2028. These exercises identify common patterns that offer a clearer understanding of how mobility may evolve across different contexts.
The methodology combines data analysis, review of global trends, and participatory workshops with experts and national stakeholders. Rather than forecasting exact outcomes, it develops plausible scenarios and highlights practical implications for planning, coordination, and resource allocation.
According to the report, approximately 78.7 million international migrants currently reside in the region. In 2024 alone, 14.5 million internal displacements were recorded, primarily due to disasters, while displacement linked to conflict and violence reached nearly 1.5 million.
Intraregional migration remains a defining feature, including continued movements from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, with around 6.9 million Venezuelans living across Latin America and the Caribbean, mainly in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador.
These trends do not occur in isolation. They interact and reinforce one another, creating a more volatile and complex migration environment where multiple drivers shape movements simultaneously.
Beyond identifying risks, the report aims to strengthen anticipatory capacity. In a context marked by uncertainty, a foresight approach helps move beyond reactive responses and supports more effective preparedness.
IOM is increasingly integrating foresight into its planning, disaster risk reduction and policy development efforts to support more timely, coordinated and evidence-based responses.
Through this regional analysis, IOM aims to support governments and communities in making more informed decisions by embedding anticipation into planning and preparedness efforts.
You can read the full report here .
