London Misjudged: Public Misreads Crime, Life Quality

London has among the lowest violent crime rates of any region in England and Wales, tops a global ranking of best cities, and pays more in tax than it receives back in public spending - but the public overestimate how likely Londoners are to become victims of crime, underestimate the capital's international standing, and have little idea it is the key contributor to the public finances, according to a new study from the Policy Institute at King's College London.

London has fallen? Misperceptions of crime, race, religion and life in the UK capital also reveals the public think the city's Muslim population is double its true size, while a third of the public believe the city has "no-go" areas where Sharia law dominates and non-Muslims cannot enter.

The study finds misperceptions about the capital divide sharply along party lines. Reform UK supporters are furthest from the facts on crime and on London's Muslim population, which they guess makes up as much as half the capital. Green and Labour supporters, meanwhile, make an opposite error, overestimating how White British London is.

But the public are not wrong about everything. They correctly identify that shoplifting, theft from the person, sexual offences and violence rose between 2019 and 2025 - even if a majority wrongly think total crime in the capital has increased, when it has in fact fallen slightly.

Based on two surveys of 2,164 and 3,969 adults, carried out with YouGov between 23 and 27 March 2026 for the Mistaken Britain research series, the study shows how misperceptions about London are closely linked to how warmly people feel towards the capital and their opinion of the direction it is heading in.

What the public get most wrong about London

Crime and safety

• The public think Londoners are far more likely to be victims of crime than they really are. Asked what share of Londoners personally experienced a crime in the year between October 2024 and September 2025, the public's median guess is 30% - more than double the reality of 12.2%.¹ Londoners themselves guess 25%, still double the true figure.
• London is wrongly assumed to be the worst region in England and Wales for violent and sexual crime. Half (50%) the public think London had the highest rate of violent crime of any region in the year to September 2025, and 37% say the same for sexual offences - when in fact London had the lowest rate of violent crime, and the joint-lowest rate of sexual offences.
• The public are wrong in thinking crime overall and murder have risen. A majority (62%) guess total crime in London rose between 2019 and 2025, when it has actually fallen slightly, by 1.4%. And four in 10 (40%) think the number of murders has risen when it has fallen by around 15%.
• However, some crimes have risen, and the public are more likely to correctly identify those. 79% correctly guess shoplifting has increased in London, and 71% say the same about thefts from the person - both of which have more than doubled in this time. Sexual offences and violence against the person have also increased, and 58% of the public correctly guess this is the case.
• People think Londoners feel far less safe than they actually do. The public guess 60% of Londoners do not feel safe walking alone in their area after dark - well above the reality of 37%. Even residents of the capital themselves overestimate how afraid other Londoners are, at 50%.
• Following comments by the businessman Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who said he "can't wear a watch in London" because it is likely to be stolen, seven in 10 (70%) of the public agree it is unwise to wear a luxury watch in the capital. The actual risk of luxury watch theft is difficult to calculate: around 2,000 luxury watches were reported stolen in 2023, which suggests they are relatively rare events compared with the level of public concern.

Demographics

• The Muslim share of London's population is estimated at more than double its true size. The public's median guess is that 35% of Londoners are Muslim, against a reality of 15%...
• …and that overestimate sits alongside a third (34%) of the public believing there are "no-go" areas in London where Sharia law dominates and non-Muslims cannot enter. Virtually the same proportion (36%) disagree this is the case, while one in five (19%) say they don't know.
• The public assume London is the region with the most refugees and asylum seekers per head. It is actually second, at 5.5 per 10,000 residents - behind Scotland, on 7, which just one in 20 (5%) place in the top two.

Quality of life

• London tops a global "best cities" ranking, but the public assume it sits near the bottom. Despite coming first in the 2025 World's Best Cities index, just 6% guess it ranks top of eight major cities tested, while 17% think it comes last - the second-worst showing of any city, after New York (20%).
• Air quality is improving, but few realise it. Levels of the pollutant nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) fell by nearly half between 2016 and 2023, yet only 32% of the public know it has improved - a majority (55%) think it has stayed the same or got worse.

Public spending

• Few realise London is a net contributor to the public finances. Most (69%) correctly recognise London receives more public spending than other regions, but only 30% know it also pays more in tax than it receives back - making it one of only two parts of the UK to run a fiscal surplus.

How misperceptions divide along party lines

• Reform UK supporters think half of London's population is Muslim. Their median guess of 50% is notably higher than the equivalent figure for Conservatives (40%), who guess next-highest, and more than three times the reality of 15%.
• Different parties' supporters misperceive London's ethnic make-up in different ways. Green and Labour supporters most overestimate the White British share, guessing 50% against a reality of 37%, while Reform supporters most overestimate the Black and Asian populations, estimating each at 30% against realities of 14% and 21%.
• On the crimes that have genuinely risen, it is supporters on the left who are most often wrong. Violence and sexual offences have both increased in London, even if rates of both are still among the lowest in the country, yet fewer than half of Labour and Green supporters recognise that either has gone up - compared with majorities of Reform and Conservative supporters.
• Reform supporters have the most inflated view of the risk of crime in London, guessing that 40% of Londoners were victims of crime in a single year - more than three times the reality (12.2%) - and are most likely to wrongly think total crime has risen since 2019, with nine in 10 (87%) holding this misperception.
• Reform supporters also most overestimate how unsafe Londoners feel, guessing that 70% do not feel safe walking alone after dark - 10 points above Conservatives (60%), the next-highest, and almost double the reality of 37%.

How misperceptions link to attitudes towards the capital

Misperceptions about London are not just factual errors - they track how warmly people feel about the capital and the direction it's heading in, as well as how they view other realities.

• Overestimating crime is related to a bleaker view of London as a whole. Among those who wrongly think 70% or more of Londoners were victims of crime between 2024 and 2025, three-quarters (75%) think London has changed for the worse since 2016 - far higher than the share of the public as a whole who feel this way (54%).
• An inflated view of London's Muslim population is linked to belief in Sharia-dominated areas. Those who wrongly think 70% or more of Londoners are Muslim are much more likely than the public overall (62% vs 34%) to say there are no-go areas where Sharia law is enforced and non-Muslims cannot enter.
• Understanding London's economic value is linked to warmer feelings towards the capital. People who correctly recognise that London pays more in tax than it gets back in public spending are more likely to feel proud of the city than those who think this is false (54% vs 36%).

Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute at King's College London, said:

"London has become a lightning rod in our national debate - deeply connected to arguments about crime, immigration and the direction of the country - with the sense that 'London has fallen' now a recurring theme in political, media and social media narratives. This study shows people don't just have varying opinions about the capital; they're working from different facts about it - with many being far too negative about the realities in London.

"And those facts line up neatly with politics. Reform UK and Conservative supporters tend to imagine a city far more dangerous, violent and in decline than it really is. They also hugely overestimate the Muslim share of the capital's population, and are more likely to believe there are areas wholly controlled by Muslims and excluding others. But Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters have their own blind spots, underestimating the crimes that genuinely have risen and the diversity of the capital.

"Each of us tends to see the London that fits the story we already believe, reflecting both our own biases and the messages we'll see from an increasingly fragmented and polarised media, social media and politics.

"Protecting a shared view of the reality of London is crucial to allow healthy debate about our capital - we're all entitled to our own opinions on that, but not our own facts."

Study details

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 2,164 UK adults for all questions, except for the questions on favourability towards UK cities, where the sample comprised 3,969 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 23 and 27 March 2026. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all UK adults (aged 18+) by age, gender and education (interlocked), vote in the 2024 general election and region (interlocked), vote in the 2016 EU referendum, socio-economic classification, political attention, and ethnicity. Some questions were asked of a random half of the sample, and some findings are reported for Londoners specifically; base sizes are given in the full report.

Reality figures are drawn from official sources including the Office for National Statistics, the Metropolitan Police, the 2021 Census, the Migration Observatory and the House of Commons Library. Full source details are given in the report. Regional crime comparisons exclude Scotland and Northern Ireland, whose crime statistics are not directly comparable with those for England and Wales.

1. Respondents were asked about all crime except fraud, cyber crimes and murder, as this study focuses on crimes experienced in person. This is in keeping with the Crime Survey for England and Wales, which is the source of the reality figure and reports its headline victimisation rates both with and without fraud and computer misuse (cyber crimes). Murder/homicide is not covered by the survey, which is based on victims' own accounts.