A new study led by researchers at Sun Yat-sen University has mapped the current and future potential distribution of Physella acuta, an invasive freshwater snail threatening China's ecosystems, public health, and agriculture. Using advanced climate modeling, the team predicts that while southern China may see shrinking suitable habitats for the snail, northern regions could face increased invasion risk, underscoring the need for targeted monitoring and control strategies.
"Physella acuta is a global invader with severe ecological and economic impacts, and China has seen its range expand rapidly since its first detection in 1993," said Dr. Xuerong Li, corresponding author of the study published in Science in One Health, "Our findings provide a critical roadmap for managing this species amid climate change, helping authorities prioritize areas for intervention."
Unraveling the Snail's Habitat Drivers
Using the MaxEnt species distribution model, the researchers analyzed 2,012 global distribution points and key environmental variables—including temperature in the coldest season and precipitation in specific months—to predict suitable habitats. The model, validated with an AUC score of 0.918, identified warm, humid environments as critical for the snail's survival.
Currently, Physella acuta thrives in southern and central China, particularly in Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, and the Yangtze River Basin, occupying 10.22% of China's land area. These regions face risks like water pollution, biodiversity loss, and increased disease transmission, as the snail serves as an intermediate host for pathogens like Angiostrongylus cantonensis, causing human meningitis.
Future Projections: Southern Contraction, Northern Stability
Under future climate scenarios (SSPs 126, 245, 370, 585), the study predicts a northward shift in the snail's distribution center. Southern low-latitude areas, such as Guangxi, will likely see significant habitat shrinkage due to rising temperatures and extreme weather, while northern regions like Shaanxi and Henan may experience stable or slightly expanded suitable habitats.
"While the overall suitable area in China is projected to decline, the northward shift signals new invasion frontiers," explained Dr. Yinjuan Wu, co-corresponding author, "This emphasizes the need for coordinated monitoring across both current hotspots and emerging risk areas."
Implications for Invasion Management
The study highlights that Physella acuta's high reproductive capacity and adaptability to polluted waters make it a formidable invader. Without intervention, it could disrupt freshwater ecosystems, harm agricultural productivity, and exacerbate public health burdens.
"Our model-based predictions can guide policymakers to implement targeted control measures, such as biosecurity protocols in waterways and early detection systems in northern provinces," said Yingxuan Yin, first author, "Climate change adds complexity, so adaptive strategies that account for shifting habitats are essential."
Limitations and Future Directions
While the research focuses on climatic factors, the team acknowledges the need to integrate human activity impacts and water body characteristics in future studies. Ongoing work will explore how land use change and pollution interact with climate to influence the snail's spread.
Publication Details
The study, "Modeling the distribution of the invasive snail Physella acuta in China: Implications for ecological and economic impact," appears in Science in One Health (DOI: 10.1016/j.soh.2025.100107). It was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant number 2020YFC1200100) and the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (grant numbers 2023A1515010955, 2025A1515012017).
