Ocean risks are already severe and worsening, with the potential to become catastrophic without a change of course, according to a new report from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), the University of Exeter and The Ocean Race.
Despite the ocean's critical role in regulating climate, supporting food and water systems, and enabling global trade, these risks remain a significant blind spot for many economic and financial decision-makers. Conventional assessments often consider hazards individually and can omit ocean degradation, tipping points and the possibility of interacting systemic shocks.
The report warns that consequences would not remain offshore. Disruption to fisheries, rainfall, shipping, coastal infrastructure and insurance could contribute to food-price shocks, higher living costs and wider inflationary pressures - affecting households, businesses and financial markets.
'Ocean Maelstrom - Navigating the Climate Storm' introduces Ocean Solvency: the ocean's capacity to continue providing the essential services on which human prosperity and economic stability depend.
It also presents Ocean Maelstrom, a plausible systemic-risk scenario - not a forecast - showing how interacting ocean, climate and geopolitical pressures could cascade through food production, global trade, insurance, sovereign risk and financial markets. Some consequences could emerge in years rather than decades, making them relevant to decisions being taken today.
A pensions case study illustrates how ocean degradation could affect scheme assets, liabilities and contributions simultaneously. Weaker investment returns, higher inflation and pressure on employers and household finances could combine to threaten the adequacy of future retirement incomes.
The report calls on governments, regulators, investors, insurers and pension schemes to recognise ocean health as critical economic infrastructure and incorporate ocean-related systemic risk into strategic decision-making, scenario analysis and long-term risk management.
It also identifies grounds for optimism. Ocean ecosystems can recover when damaging pressures are removed, and investment opportunities supporting ocean restoration and the blue economy are emerging. However, a persistent "say-do gap" between international commitments and delivery means that policy implementation, enforcement and finance are not yet matching the pace of the challenge.
The report recommends:
- Adopting realistic risk-assessment frameworks that include ocean degradation, tipping points and interacting systemic risks.
- Integrating Ocean Solvency into government, regulatory and financial decision-making.
- Accelerating ocean protection and restoration through stronger policy, enforcement and investment.
- Developing financial structures that enable capital to support ocean resilience and systemic-risk reduction.
- Closing the say-do gap by translating existing ocean commitments into measurable delivery.
Sandy Trust FIA, lead author, said: "The ocean is critical infrastructure for our economy, but it remains largely invisible in economic and financial risk assessments. That is a dangerous blind spot. Ocean degradation does not remain offshore. It can transmit through food production, trade, insurance and financial markets - contributing to higher prices, greater pressure on household finances and weaker retirement outcomes. Ocean recovery is possible, but commitments must now translate into delivery. Governments and financial institutions need to recognise the risk, strengthen resilience and direct more capital towards protecting and restoring ocean health."
Paul Sweeting FIA C.Act, President of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, said: "The health of our oceans should be a concern not only for environmental policymakers, but also for governments, regulators, investors and pension funds. Actuaries have already created a Planetary Solvency Recovery Framework in collaboration with academics and climate scientists which outlines how realistic risk assessments can help to support and restore the stability and resilience of the Earth system. Now we need coordinated efforts to apply this framework to our oceans, to restore ocean health so that it can continue to fulfil the essential functions upon which society and the economy depend."
Dr Jesse Abrams, Senior Impact Fellow at Green Futures Solutions, University of Exeter, said: "The ocean plays a vital role in regulating our climate and supporting the ecosystems and economies we depend on. As climate change and other pressures intensify, we face growing risks to the ocean that could spread far beyond the ocean itself. Disruptions to ocean circulation, marine ecosystems and food systems could trigger wider economic and financial instability. These interconnected risks are still poorly captured in conventional economic models, leaving us dangerously exposed to consequences we are not adequately prepared for."
