New research has mapped a plausible scenario for how offshore wind could reshape the North Sea by 2050, showing that if all current political commitments were built, around 11% of the basin would fall within wind farm boundaries.
Led by Heriot‑Watt University, the study provides one of the most comprehensive assessments to date of European offshore wind ambitions, showing that current political commitments imply a total of around 19,400 offshore wind turbines across the North Sea by 2050, including those already built.
The analysis examined both operational offshore wind farms and projects already in national development pipelines across all seven countries with North Sea waters: the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the UK, Norway and France.
Where necessary, hypothetical wind farms were added to bring each country's total capacity in line with its stated commitments. The researchers stress that this is a scenario, not a forecast, and does not predict where wind farms will actually be located in 2050.
Dr Simon Waldman, Assistant Professor of Energy Technologies at Heriot-Watt University's School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society said: "Our scenario shows the scale that we would be looking at if every country were to build the amount of offshore wind capacity that they have promised."
"It's important to be clear that this isn't a prediction of what the North Sea will look like in 2050, it's simply a projection based on the data and national ambitions we have today.
"We originally began this work because we wanted to understand the environmental effects of a very large rollout of offshore wind. To do that properly, we needed a plausible set of turbine locations and that simply didn't exist at the time.
"Since the project began, national ambitions have grown in response to global events, so we updated the dataset to reflect the higher targets governments now have."
By 2030, the UK is projected to remain the largest offshore wind nation in the North Sea, with roughly 4,200 turbines in operation. Germany follows with around 2,700 turbines, and the Netherlands with approximately 1,700.
By 2050, these three countries continue to dominate in scale, with the UK expected to host around 6,300 turbines, Germany in the region of 4,300, and the Netherlands just over 4,200.
In spatial terms, the Netherlands is projected to be the most intensively used national zone, with offshore wind farms occupying around 19% of its North Sea waters by 2050.
Belgium follows at around 18%, ahead of Denmark (about 15%) and Germany (around 14%). The UK (around 9%), Norway (around 8%) and France (around 7%) show lower proportions of their national waters within wind farm boundaries.
Taken together, projected and operational offshore wind developments would cover approximately 58,500 square kilometres of the North Sea, rising from around 1% of the basin today to about 11% by 2050.
Dr Waldman added: "To build this scenario, we brought together a wide range of international marine and energy datasets, from national targets and spatial plans to seabed depths, wind and wave records, existing infrastructure and projected turbine technologies, to create a realistic picture of what current ambitions might mean in practice.
"When placing our projected future wind farms, we tried to avoid shipping lanes, environmentally protected areas, existing seabed cables and pipelines, and more.
"What this shows is the scale of activity we will be dealing with if offshore wind grows as promised, and the practical considerations that come with that."
The research was carried out with colleagues at the University of Hull and the University of St Andrews. It began as a master's dissertation by former student Peter Munro, who created the first version of the wind farm and turbine layouts while studying at Hull.
A 2024 update was completed by Conor Gilmour, who worked as a research assistant at the University of St Andrews before moving into industry. Further expertise came from Professor Rodney M Forster at Hull and Dr Debbie J F Russell at the University of St Andrews. The work was, in part funded by the NERC INSITE as part of the EcoSTAR project.
Debbie Russell (EcoSTAR project lead) said: "There is an urgent need to predict the potential impact of development at this scale; this layer represents a feasible layout that can be used for such scenario testing.
"We certainly believe it is one of the most detailed resources available for looking at how offshore wind could develop across the North Sea.
"Not only does our research show this plausible scenario, but it also highlights some new and existing challenges that we may face.
"Below the surface, turbines sit within busy and sensitive marine environments, which affects how other sea users, especially fishers, can operate, because many fishing methods depend on the seabed as well as the surface.
"Above the surface, large wind farms create long atmospheric wakes. A single turbine slows the air behind it, but very big farms can cast wakes stretching 40 kilometres or more, meaning one project can influence another even across national borders.
"We're already seeing early signs of developers reporting energy losses due to neighbouring wakes, and there are ecological considerations too as we look at how these structures alter marine systems. As the sector expands, understanding these interactions clearly becomes essential."
Professor Rodney Forster from the Hull Marine Laboratory at the University of Hull said: "The North Sea supports fragile marine ecosystems and coastal communities dependent on logistics, fishing and energy industries.
"It's clear that coming decades will see a significant increase in offshore wind developments. As these expand we need to understand possible impacts on those diverse ecosystems and the implications for wider marine industries.
"The next steps are to identify other uses of the sea that can be placed alongside or within operational windfarms. In separate research we have identified that the best conditions for growing mussels in aquaculture farms happens to coincide with the best sites for offshore wind.
"Our work with the University of St Andrews and Heriot-Watt University will help us to manage our interactions with the sea to better support those ecosystems and the communities that depend on them."
