The risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) or heart failure (HF), or dying, following a type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis increases substantially over time, according to new research being presented at the Annual Meeting of The European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) in Milan, Italy (Sept 28 – Oct 2).
The study, which analysed data from more than 1.6 million patients across the USA, found that the combined risk of developing CKD or HF, or dying, was 33% on average within the first five years of a T2D diagnosis, rising to 55% over 10 years.
The researchers say their findings underscore the critical importance of early, proactive and more holistic approaches to the management of type 2 diabetes to help reduce the risk of serious complications.
T2D is projected to become the biggest epidemic disease in the world, affecting an estimated 1.3 billion people by 2050 [1]. It frequently occurs alongside other conditions, including obesity, high blood pressure, HF, CKD and depression, contributing substantially to the global burden of multimorbidity. This causes considerable suffering for people living with T2D and economic stress for many countries, especially low- and middle-income countries.
However, how quickly and in what order people newly diagnosed with T2D develop serious complications such as CKD and HF is not fully understood.
To address these knowledge gaps, researchers analysed real-world data from the CALOR observational study programme [2] to estimate the risk of developing CKD or HF following a new T2D diagnosis, the risk of developing the other complication within five years of the first, and the combined risk of developing CKD or HF, or dying, within five and 10 years of diagnosis.
They included 1,617,508 patients newly diagnosed with T2D between 1st January 2010 and 31st March 2024 from across the USA. The average age of participants at enrolment was 59 years, and 51% were female. Among the 13% of patients who had a body mass index (BMI) recorded, the average (median) was 30.9 kg/m².
Almost three-quarters (72%) of participants were also living with dyslipidaemia (high levels of cholesterol and other fats in the blood), and over two thirds (68%) had high blood pressure.
