Polar Security: Competition at Earth's Extremes

ASPI

The Arctic and Antarctica were strategic theatres in which the Cold War played out, but they were also regions in which concerted efforts were made to bring together the rival superpowers. The polar regions became beacons of global cooperation, Cold War East-West dialogue and best practice statecraft.

Today, the polar regions host new 'players' or stakeholders and are shaped by increasingly novel forces. The dynamics at the ends of the earth have clearly changed, and the fragile status-quo born from our Cold War system of managing state power (and ambitions) is incredibly brittle. Our polar regions require a modernised system or framework to manage strategic competition, to facilitate the ebbs and flows of geopolitics: the organic state of play between powers.

Canberra has enduring, albeit under recognised, national security interests in the polar domains. Australia's strategic interests in the polar regions will only be protected through enhanced physical presence, deeper security partnerships, and credible investment in deterrent capabilities. Blind faith in liberal institutionalism is no longer an option; indeed, as this report argues, this approach increasingly appears to sustain competitor national interests at the expense of our own.

In the Arctic and Antarctica, Canberra confronts a more assertive, and broadly revisionist, strategic climate. Business as usual at either end of the earth will not suffice in this new normal. We need a more holistic approach.

With fragmentation and erosion of the specific governance forums and systems in place in the polar regions, it is crucial Canberra leads middle power stakeholders in mounting a collective stand to salvage and ideally, modernise the status quo for Antarctica and the Arctic.

Resource insecurity, renewed strategic competition, and environmental change are converging at the poles, determining the future of the Arctic and Antarctica and this Report illustrates why this trinity matters for Canberra.

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