Key Facts:
- Australia's Reserve Bank is expecting to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, which OpenCorp believes could signal a turning point for the property market.
- OpenCorp Co-Founder Cam McLellan warns that waiting for a rate cut is a mistake, as property markets respond to confidence rather than lower rates themselves.
- Three of the four major banks are forecasting a rate cut, with market sentiment shifting as buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines begin to return.
- Australia's ongoing housing shortage means that while buyer confidence can return quickly, new housing supply cannot be built overnight, potentially driving rapid price growth.
- McLellan's book *Investing in the New Normal* draws on 50 years of Australian property investment experience and has successfully tracked major changes in the property market from 2020 to 2026.
Australia's leading property investment firm OpenCorp says today's [expected] Reserve Bank decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35% could mark the moment the property market stops waiting and starts moving. For long-term investors, it comes as no surprise.
"The biggest mistake investors could make right now is waiting for the first rate cut," said Cam McLellan, Co-Founder of OpenCorp. "Property markets don't respond to lower rates. They respond to confidence. Today's RBA decision reinforces what experienced investors already understand: once the market becomes convinced the rate cycle has turned, demand can return much faster than most people expect."
"The challenge is that Australia's housing shortage remains unresolved. We can create buyer confidence overnight, but we can't build hundreds of thousands of homes overnight. That's why the next phase of the market may not be driven by interest rates at all. It may be driven by the simple fact that demand is returning to a market that still doesn't have enough homes."
McLellan, whose 2020 book Investing in the New Normal drew on 50 years of Australian property investment experience to help investors make decisions based on long-term fundamentals, says the current cycle is one OpenCorp has been modelling for years.
"For the past six months, uncertainty around interest rates, the Federal Budget and the broader economy has kept many buyers on the sidelines. But markets don't move when rates are cut - they move when people become confident enough to believe cuts are coming.
"Historically, we see demand strengthen when rates stabilise, and this is the first hold since December. With three of the four major banks now forecasting the next move down, sentiment is shifting quickly.
"The problem is that confidence can return almost overnight, but new housing supply can't. Australia is already struggling to build enough homes to meet demand, so if buyers wait for complete certainty before acting, they may find themselves competing in a market that's already moved.
"For investors who have been focused on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term headlines, none of this should come as a surprise. The housing shortage hasn't gone away. What's changing is confidence."
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