A major new study published in The British Medical Journal has found that fewer older Americans are being newly diagnosed with dementia, yet the total number living with the condition is growing-a trend with serious implications for the healthcare system.
The latest research, led by experts at UNC School of Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, and University
of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, spotlights the urgent need for policies that address disparities in dementia prevention, diagnosis, and long-term support.
Jay Lusk, MD, MBA
"We're seeing encouraging signs that fewer people are being newly diagnosed with dementia each year," said Jay B. Lusk, MD, MBA, preventive medicine resident at the UNC Department of Family Medicine and visiting research scholar at Duke University. "At the same time, people with dementia are living longer than before, which underscores the need for long-term care planning, caregiver support, and equitable dementia care delivery."
Dementia is already a leading cause of disability and dependency among older adults. Globally, more than 150 million people are projected to develop dementia by 2050. In the United States, this growing burden will increasingly strain families, caregivers, and the healthcare system-especially in underserved communities.
Researchers analyzed data from more than 25 million traditional Medicare beneficiaries between 2015 and 2021, focusing on trends in dementia incidence and prevalence across age, sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic groups.
They made the following key findings:
- Age- and sex-adjusted incidence of dementia fell from 3.5% in 2015 to 2.8% in 2021.
- At the same time, prevalence rose from 10.5% to 11.8%, with nearly 2.9 million beneficiaries-about 12% of traditional Medicare enrollees-living with a dementia diagnosis by 2021.
- Dementia incidence was highest among Black beneficiaries (3.1%), followed by White (2.8%) and Hispanic (2.6%) beneficiaries in 2021.
- Higher rates of dementia were consistently found in women, racial and ethnic minorities, and people living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods.
This work was funded by the Duke-UNC Alzheimer's Disease Research Center (ADRC) under award P30AG072958 from the National Institute on Aging. The work was additionally funded by the Alzheimer's Association under award 24HPE-1287087 and the Duke University Department of Neurology.
