Meeting future nickel demand for stainless steel and clean energy technologies will require tough decisions with potential environmental trade-offs, a new study has found.
Dr Jayden Hyman from The University of Queensland's School of the Environment led an international analysis of known nickel deposits, current mining and demand forecasts.
Dr Hyman said by 2050 about half of mined nickel supply is likely to come from areas ranked in the top 10 per cent globally for their importance to biodiversity conservation.
"Nickel is in everything from steel in infrastructure to the pots and pans in our kitchens, and demand is surging for clean energy especially to make batteries for electric vehicles," Dr Hyman said.
"But the decisions being made now about where to source nickel could lock in impacts for decades in some of Earth's most biodiverse and carbon-rich ecosystems.
"Up to 83 per cent of nickel supply could come from laterite deposits typically beneath tropical rainforests but accessing them requires large scale clearing – most notably, this is accelerating in Indonesia.
"Many of these deposits are also near the coast, and mining them risks polluting nearby waters including what's known as the Coral Triangle to Australia's north, which is celebrated as one of the world's most biodiverse marine regions.
"We have built a model to help plan for nickel to be sourced responsibly, taking into consideration the ecological importance of land and ocean regions.
"This framework helps us understand and model different scenarios as well as the trade-offs that might need to be made."
The analysis was completed using a modelling framework developed at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) Institute for Sustainable Futures and a nickel dataset curated with researchers from UQ's Sustainable Minerals Institute .
Dr Stephen Northey from UTS said it evaluates how future mine development may occur under different demand scenarios, such as those developed by the International Energy Agency.
"The model can show how many new nickel mines will be needed for the energy transition to meet Net Zero emissions and where these may be located," Dr Northey said.
The analysis also modelled what would happen if mining were avoided in areas most important to conserve biodiversity.
It found excluding the top 10 per cent of environmentally sensitive areas would significantly reduce risks to biodiversity but could lead to nickel shortfalls of up to 18 per cent of demand by 2050, unless new resources are identified and alternative supplies are developed.
The study found that although recycling and low-nickel battery technologies were important for reducing the long-term need for mining, there was a need for new mines in the near term.
Deep-sea deposits could help address the risk of shortfalls in the absence of new resource discoveries on land, but their economic and environmental viability required further evaluation.
Dr Hyman said it was important to find optimal pathways as a global community.
"This is a call to action to work together to develop strategies for environmentally responsible mineral supply so we can build the clean energy future we need," he said.
"With thoughtful planning and a focus on protecting areas most important for biodiversity and exploring alternatives, nickel supply can be secured with fewer ecological impacts.
"Requiring stronger sustainability standards on supply chains that use nickel could tip the balance back towards more responsible producers that generally have higher costs.
"We have seen low‑cost laterite supply from Indonesia and other tropical locations driving mine closures and production suspensions in regions like Australia.
"Better transparency about the environmental cost of expanding nickel mining is needed, along with research into alternatives to ensure nickel supply doesn't undermine global biodiversity and climate goals."
Read the research published in Nature Ecology and Evolution.
