The fighting at Chernobyl has caused an increase in radioactive radiation levels. Aleh Cherp, a professor at the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics (IIIEE), has studied energy security and Chernobyl. He thinks that the sanctions could lead to significant changes in the types of energy used in Europe.
During the first days of the invasion, there was fighting close to the wrecked nuclear power plant at Chernobyl. Later, the western media reported an increase in radioactive radiation at the site. Aleh Cherp cannot confirm the information, but says that it would be natural for radiation to increase following clashes in the area.
"There is a lot of radioactivity in the ground. Normally, this is a cordoned off area that nobody is allowed to enter, and if heavy military vehicles drive in this area or there is combat, radioactive particles are churned up and the radiation rises", says Aleh Cherp.
The wrecked nuclear power plant at Chernobyl is encased in a radiation-proof sarcophagus. Even if the sarcophagus was hit by a stray missile, the risk is minimal that radioactive radiation would spread over a large area.
"That risk is extremely unlikely. It would require a direct hit by a very powerful missile, and, even if that were to happen, the radioactive emissions would be local", says Aleh Cherp.
He expects the use of different types of energy to change due to the war. However, much depends on the duration of the war and the sanctions. If there is a resolution soon, the consequences will probably not be as considerable as they would be in the case of a long conflict.
According to Aleh Cherp, the phasing out of coal energy will probably be put on hold in some countries. Another consequence will be the reduced use of natural gas and oil, at the same time as new infrastructure is being built up to import liquefied natural gas (LNG). He also does not exclude that a country such as Poland could invest more in fracking (a controversial hydraulic method of fracturing bedrock to extract oil shale and natural gas).
Nuclear power may increase in some places, but not in others.
"Poland is a country where plans for more nuclear power may gather speed. At the same time, some of the planned nuclear power plants in Finland and Turkey may be paused, as the Russian corporation Rosatom is involved in the construction", states Aleh Cherp.
Wind and solar power may well increase, he says. Particularly offshore wind power. The major part of Europe's offshore wind power comes from turbines in the North Sea, but Sweden, Finland and Estonia have well-advanced plans for large wind power parks in the Baltic Sea.
"Some of the plans will perhaps be put on ice due to the major uncertainty in the area", says Aleh Cherp.
Another obstacle to the robust expansion of solar and wind power is the high price of raw materials. If the price of the materials required to produce wind turbines and solar panels rises considerably, it will become more expensive to invest in those types of energy.
What do you think the environmental consequences of the war may be in Europe?
"In this situation, I think that both the public and politicians will perhaps not prioritise environmental problems as much, except those directly related to energy security", concludes Aleh Cherp.
