Last year was one of Canada's strongest tourism years on record. The sector generated nearly $60 billion in revenue between May and August 2025, a six per cent year-over-year increase, according to Destination Canada .
Several forces drove that surge, including a continued post-COVID rebound and persistent trade tensions between Canada and the United States that encouraged Canadians to explore the nation's provinces and territories.
In a recent speech to the Liberal National Convention , Prime Minister Mark Carney pointed to last summer's numbers as evidence of national momentum.
But the fuel crisis and inflation means that the tourism records may not be broken as easily in 2026 as they were in 2025.
FIFA and the summer of 2026
Demand for travel remains strong, with seven in 10 Canadians expecting to travel this year . With the FIFA men's World Cup arriving in Canada this June, the conditions for another record summer could be in place.
Canada will be co-hosting the FIFA World Cup alongside the U.S. and Mexico. Seven matches will be played at BC Place in Vancouver and six at BMO Field in Toronto.
"This is the largest single-sport event on the planet," Anne Kang, B.C Minister of Tourism, Arts, Culture and Sport, said in a statement . "More than 350,000 fans are expected to pass through the doors at BC Place."
Major sports events have historically pulled travel spending into surrounding regions. The World Cup is expected to do the same , drawing international visitors who may extend their stays beyond host cities .
Rising costs are squeezing travel
There are still factors that could impact travel both internationally and domestically, however.
Following the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began Feb. 27 and Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, jet fuel prices have risen nearly 70 per cent .
Even domestic flight fares have increased by 14 per cent , according to Flight Centre Canada. The consolidation and cancellation of flights will also shape Canada's travel and transportation sectors.
That pressure is compounded by the current cost of living crisis. Thirty-one per cent of Canadians from an Ipsos poll say they plan to travel less due to economic uncertainty .
According to the poll, Canadians aged 55 and older are most likely to say their plans are unaffected by inflation, interest rates and geopolitics. Younger Canadians - the group most eager to travel - are the most likely to be priced out.
A recent TD survey on summer spending indicated that buying Canadian remains a strong sentiment. For example, 79 per cent of respondents plan to support local or Canadian businesses this summer. Of that group, 48 per cent said their desire to support local business is even stronger than it was last year.
Canadians still steering clear of the U.S.
Trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. are still redirecting spending. There has been a decline in reservations by Canadians who used to consider travelling to the U.S.
A March 2026 Leger survey found 67 per cent of Canadians cited political tension as a central factor for reduced visits to the U.S., while 64 per cent said they are less likely to travel to Mexico due to security concerns .
New barriers and limitations are adding to the friction. Under U.S. President Donald Trump's executive order "Protecting the American People Against Invasion," Canadians staying in the U.S. for 30 days or more are now required to register with American immigration authorities .
The rule primarily affects snowbirds and extended-stay travellers, but it's deterring some Canadians from crossing the border at all.
Plenty to do at home
All these shifts are creating an opening for domestic travel, and the federal government is moving to fill it.
Ottawa has brought back the Canada Strong Pass for a second summer. From June 19 to Sept. 7, it offers reduced or free admissions to Parks Canada sites, historic sites, marine conservation areas and galleries and museums around the country.
VIA Rail offers free travel for children aged 17 and under when travelling with an adult, and 25 per cent off fares for young adults aged 18 to 24. Last year's program saw a 13 per cent increase in visits to Parks Canada sites and an average 15 per cent increase in attendance at national museums.
A surge in running tourism is adding another pull. Destination race events combine a fitness goal with a regional getaway in a trend the travel industry has come to call "runcations." There is no shortage of destination racing opportunities across Canada.
Like the World Cup, these events push tourism dollars into communities that rarely see major-event traffic , spreading the benefits more broadly across the country.
Canada's tourism and travel industry has shown it can absorb considerable disruption in the face of fuel crises, airline shutdowns and global angst. The fuel crisis and inflation mean 2026 will be harder than 2025, but the appetite to travel is still strong among Canadians.
Moira A. McDonald is a board member with the Travel Tourism Research Association of Canada
Ann-Kathrin McLean, Oreoluwa Adeniyi, and Shimaya Sureshbabu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
