A new report from the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) concludes that lowering the cost of solar energy, avoiding construction of new large fuel-burning power plants and preserving the option for enhanced geothermal energy could provide the most affordable path for Oʻahu's electricity system through 2050.
Published June 29, the report examined hundreds of scenarios using an electricity planning model similar to those used by utility planners and regulators. Researchers tested how factors such as oil prices, solar and battery costs, land-use policies and proposed energy projects would affect long-term electricity costs.
Among the report's findings, reducing the "soft costs" of solar—including permitting, interconnection and other non-hardware expenses—would have the greatest impact. Researchers estimate that bringing Hawaiʻi's solar costs closer to levels on the continental U.S. could save Oʻahu electricity customers about $3.4 billion between 2027 and 2050.
The report also found that Oʻahu does not need another large fuel-burning power plant beyond projects already under development. Instead, it recommends maintaining the option to develop enhanced geothermal systems, an emerging technology that could provide additional savings if costs continue to decline.
The researchers also evaluated a proposal to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) and build a new gas-fired power plant, concluding it would be more expensive than alternatives focused on renewable energy.
"Solar-procurement reform, an enhanced geothermal demonstration and not committing to the JERA LNG bundle together describe the cheapest path for Oʻahu through 2050," the report states.
The authors note that while their analysis focuses on system costs, other considerations—including community input, where energy projects are built and future weather extremes—remain important as Hawaiʻi plans its energy future.
The report was authored by Ethan Hartley, Michael J. Roberts and Matthias Fripp of UHERO.
Read the entire report on UHERO's website .
UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa's College of Social Sciences .
The post Lowest-cost path for Oʻahu's electricity future identified in new UHERO report first appeared on University of Hawaiʻi System News .
