Much of England is now officially in drought. Reservoir levels are being closely monitored by water companies, while farmers are reporting dry soils and poor crop conditions . Further restrictions such as grazing rules could soon come into effect.
Author
- Sven Batke
Associate Head of Research and Knowledge Exchange - Reader in Plant Science, Edge Hill University
Water is recognised as critical national infrastructure. However, drought does not only threaten our water supply. It also tests the resilience of the food system that depends on it.
For most of us, that reality becomes visible in the supermarket: standing in front of a shelf with no cucumbers , more expensive tomatoes or fewer fresh vegetables to choose from. These episodes have become increasingly familiar in recent years. We notice the empty shelves, accept the higher prices and move on.
But I keep wondering: why does this surprise so many people?
The UK carefully monitors many of the systems that underpin everyday life. We publish inflation figures every month , NHS waiting lists every week and regularly report on water reservoir levels because these indicators tell us whether essential systems are becoming stronger or weaker. They provide an early indication that intervention may be needed before problems escalate. Food, however, is different. We tend to judge the resilience of our food system only after something has gone wrong.
That seems odd for something so fundamental. Food is every bit as essential as healthcare, energy or water, yet we have no simple measure that tells us whether Britain's ability to produce and supply food is becoming more or less resilient over time.
Part of the problem is that we often confuse food security with food resilience.
Food security is about whether people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food.
Food resilience is something different. It describes the ability of the food system to continue functioning when faced with disruption, whether from extreme weather, geopolitical instability, disease outbreaks or volatile energy markets.
In nature, resilience is often defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance while maintaining its core function. It seems remarkable that we routinely apply this thinking to natural ecosystems, yet rarely to the food systems on which society depends.
A country can appear food secure while quietly becoming less resilient. Increasing reliance on imports, ageing production infrastructure, exposure to energy price shocks or declining domestic investment may not affect consumers immediately - but together they make the system increasingly vulnerable when disruption occurs.
The UK illustrates this well. Overall food self-sufficiency has remained at around 60% for many years, but only around 16% of the fruit consumed in the UK is grown domestically, while just over half of our vegetables are produced here. Fresh produce therefore depends heavily on international supply chains that are becoming more exposed to climate extremes and geopolitical uncertainty.
Recent work published by my team shows that 70% of Britain's commercial greenhouses are now more than 40 years old . Much of the infrastructure responsible for producing fresh fruit and vegetables was built decades ago and is approaching the end of its design life, yet investment in renewal has lagged behind many of our international competitors.
None of these statistics alone suggest an imminent crisis. Taken together, however, they begin to tell us something about the condition of the system. We already accept this type of thinking in other sectors.
A doctor does not diagnose a patient using a single measurement but combines blood pressure, heart rate, cholesterol and other indicators to assess overall health. Likewise, the economy is not judged using GDP alone; policymakers also consider inflation, unemployment and productivity.
A new index
Complex systems require multiple indicators. This is why I believe it is time to consider introducing a UK food resilience index.
The idea is surprisingly straightforward. We already collect much of the information needed. Government departments monitor agricultural production, trade, weather, water resources and energy. Industry understands infrastructure, investment, production capacity and grower confidence. Researchers analyse climate risks, supply chains and food systems. The challenge is not a lack of data, but that these pieces remain disconnected.
The aviation industry offers another useful comparison. Airlines do not wait for an engine to fail before deciding whether an aircraft is safe to fly. Thousands of measurements are taken continuously . A slight increase in vibration or fuel consumption does not mean an aircraft is unsafe today, but it may indicate that maintenance will soon be needed. The objective is to identify developing weaknesses long before they become failures. Our food system deserves the same philosophy.
A food resilience index would not rely on a single statistic. Instead, it could bring together a basket of indicators that reflect the condition of the food system. Some would measure production capacity, such as domestic fruit and vegetable output, greenhouse infrastructure renewal and land remaining in commercial production.
Others would capture external exposure, including import dependency, diversity of trading partners and energy costs. A third group could assess future resilience, looking at investment in new infrastructure, adoption of technology, water availability, workforce capacity and business confidence across the sector.
Each indicator could be standardised and combined into a single score, perhaps between 0 and 100, much like composite indices already used to measure economic performance, environmental quality or human development. More importantly, the individual components would reveal why resilience was improving or declining.
A declining resilience score would signal an increasing risk of higher food prices, greater import dependence and more frequent supply disruptions. It would help governments target investment before problems become crises and help explain to consumers why food prices change long before shortages appear.
The current drought is a reminder that extreme weather will become more common. But droughts, heatwaves and floods are often the triggers rather than the underlying cause. Like a warning light on an aircraft dashboard, they expose weaknesses that have been developing quietly for years. Monitoring the resilience of our food system would not prevent every disruption, but it would help identify those weaknesses earlier, giving us a better chance of strengthening the system before the next drought, or any other shock, puts it to the test.
Sven Batke is affiliated with the Greenhouse Innovation Consortium.
