A rare "super" El Niño could shape weather patterns across the globe, beginning as soon as any day. While not for sure, its arrival is highly likely, say experts. Meteorologist Erik Salna, an associate director at FIU's International Hurricane Research Center, explains what it could mean for South Florida and beyond.
What is El Niño, and what makes it "super"?
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs not anywhere near Florida but in the Pacific Ocean near the lower latitudes. It's an area of water that begins to warm up above what is an average temperature. When that happens, that's what's called an El Niño."
A "super" El Niño is when it the temperature goes even higher, over 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. It's been very rare that we've seen the waters get that warm, but that's what current computer models are predicting. El Niño may occur every three to five years or so. But super El Niño has occurred only about five times in the last 75 years
What kind of impact can it have globally?
El Niño affects weather around the world. It could lead to some parts of the world seeing excessively dry weather patterns and droughts. But in the United States, it can also mean very different impacts, like exceptionally stormy conditions in California with flooding and more severe weather across the southern part of the country."
What does it mean for hurricane season?
El Niño does affect our hurricane season, and that's a positive. It can create stronger upper-level winds, what we call wind shear, and hurricanes don't like that. Wind shear is a change of wind speed and direction with height, and that can inhibit development.
The numbers of storms being predicted is down just a little bit because of the predicted El Niño. There's a chance we could see a slightly below-average season.
Does that mean less danger for South Florida?
It should not change how we prepare. We're still expecting storms. In South Florida, we need to prepare the exact same way every single hurricane season, regardless of the numbers. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
How could it affect South Florida beyond hurricane season?
In South Florida, El Niño winters mean more clouds, more rain, more storms and the possibility of severe weather.
There is the possibility that the state of Florida could see a more active tornado season with larger and more damaging tornadoes. Some of that severe weather could even come down to South Florida.
