This Sunday, about 160 million Brazilians will head to the polls to elect a president, state governors, two-thirds of the Senate, federal and state deputies and, in the Federal District, district deputies.
The election is taking shape amid divisions over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the political legacy of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro's son, Flávio Bolsonaro, is Lula's main rival in the presidential race. Voters' concerns about the economy, public security, the Supreme Court crisis and the country's future are also central to the race.
University of Michigan assistant professor of political science Edgar Franco-Vivanco, director of the Latin American Elections Hub, and Raphael Nishimura, sampling operations director at the Institute for Social Research, discuss voter sentiment, polling and the election's potential implications for Latin America and the world.
What could Brazil's election mean for the region and the world?
Franco-Vivanco: Latin America has shown a clear political shift to the right. Four countries in the region-Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru-have recently moved toward right-wing governments. In Brazil, voters are disappointed with previous left-leaning incumbents and increasingly frustrated by rising crime and persistent corruption scandals. As Latin America's largest democracy, Brazil will determine whether the region's rightward shift gains momentum or faces a major counterweight.
The election holds major stakes for domestic life and the regional balance of power. A rightward turn would leave Mexico as the only major regional democracy outside this trend.
For international powers such as the United States and China, the outcome will determine how the next government balances crucial trade relationships and foreign influence. Domestically, everyday life hinges on how the incoming administration addresses public security, economic performance and persistent corruption.
This major election in Brazil will test the strength and stability of the region's democratic institutions. Smaller Latin American nations are closely monitoring the outcome as they consider how to align their regional policies with the region's leading power.
Brazil must balance its primary economic relationship with China with heavy diplomatic pressure from the United States. A close final vote raises the risk of postelection conflict and increases pressure on candidates to respect democratic norms by accepting the official results.
Right-wing candidates are capitalizing on public security concerns by making crime reduction their primary focus. Meanwhile, many voters remain deeply apathetic and disappointed with democracy because candidates have failed to address these issues directly.
How do voters split across key demographics in this race?
Franco-Vivanco: Gender is a primary dividing line in voter support, according to previous research. Women have traditionally backed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while men have tended to support Jair Bolsonaro and right-wing parties.
Recent polling shows this gender gap narrowing as candidates' campaigns seek to alter those trends. Meanwhile, young voters are exhibiting shifting political behavior. Unlike in previous election cycles, when young voters aligned closely with left-wing causes, current polling indicates a more divided electorate among younger voters.
What post-election challenge threatens the stability of the result?
Franco-Vivanco: The core danger is whether the losing candidate accepts the final result without conflict. A tight margin increases the likelihood of postelection disputes, particularly if Flávio Bolsonaro suffers a narrow defeat. Experts view candidates' adherence to democratic norms as the primary test for maintaining peace after voters cast their ballots.
How do foreign trade and international relations shape the stakes of this election?
Franco-Vivanco: Foreign relations depend heavily on how the incoming leader balances major global economic powers. China remains Brazil's primary trading partner, making strong economic ties essential to the nation's financial stability.
At the same time, the government faces direct geopolitical pressure from the United States, which prefers a closely aligned administration in the region. Maintaining this delicate balance between Washington and Beijing presents a complex diplomatic test for any administration. Smaller Latin American nations are closely following the outcome as they consider how to align their foreign policies with regional leadership.
Now, let's talk about polls. What insights can we expect from the final eight presidential polls scheduled for release on Saturday, the day before Brazil's election?
Nishimura: We will have polls of various sizes and methodologies, so each will look at the same question from a different angle. We can expect some of them to disagree, but, on average, they will present a snapshot of the Brazilian electorate moments before voters go to the polls.
Do the final polls tend to provide a more accurate picture of voter intentions, or can last-minute changes still significantly affect the results?
Nishimura: While the final polls might provide a closer look at what voters are thinking as the election approaches, we should not expect them to necessarily reflect the election results. Factors such as turnout, last-minute decisions and strategic voting might alter the snapshot taken days or even hours before the election.
What should voters look for when comparing the findings of different organizations?
Nishimura: Different methodologies might lead to different results. Polling methodology involves many aspects, from sample and questionnaire design to postdata-collection statistical adjustments. One of the main drivers, however, is the mode of data collection-whether in person, by phone or online.
This will most likely account for the main differences in the results. Also, in Brazil, all publicly released election polls must be registered with the Superior Electoral Court. Anyone can consult the court's system to review the methods used in each poll.
What are the biggest methodological challenges in accurately measuring voter intentions in Brazil's presidential race?
Nishimura: Although voting is mandatory in Brazil, one of the main methodological challenges for pollsters is measuring turnout, especially because nonparticipation is not random and affects candidates differently. This challenge is aggravated by the fact that, as in the United States and other countries, voters tend to overreport turnout in polls.
Moreover, Brazil does not have a database-such as the voter file in the United States-that contains each voter's turnout history and could enable pollsters to estimate likely-voter models. The lack of such a list, coupled with the country's continental size, also makes it very difficult to collect data efficiently without relying on telephone sampling. Telephone sampling has its own problems, as fewer people answer calls because of telemarketing and scams.
