Cancer rates in Canada will remain high in 2026. Lung, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers will be the most common, making up 47% of new diagnoses, according to research published in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal) https://www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.252152 .
"Although cancer rates are expected to remain high in 2026, there is some good news, with declines in new cases of colorectal cancer and leukemia and lower death rates from bladder cancer," says Dr. Darren Brenner, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, with coauthors. "However, death rates from pancreatic cancer are increasing, making it number three in the list of most lethal cancers."
The study, titled "Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2026", was developed by the Canadian Cancer Statistics Advisory Committee in collaboration with the Canadian Cancer Society, Statistics Canada, and the Public Health Agency of Canada. Using data from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, it estimates the number and rate of new cancer cases and deaths in 2026 for 23 cancer types, by province or territory and sex, accounting for Canada's aging population.
The report suggests that 42% of all people in Canada will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives.
"Statistics like these underscore the immense burden that cancer continues to place on people in Canada," says Dr. Jennifer Gillis, director of surveillance at the Canadian Cancer Society and coauthor. "When nearly half of the population is expected to be diagnosed in their lifetime, this research becomes vital — helping us better understand not just how widespread cancer is, but where its impact is greatest and where action can make the biggest difference for all those affected by cancer, now and in the future."
Key findings:
- Cancer continues to be the leading cause of death in Canada, with about 1 in 4 deaths in 2023 from cancer.
- It is projected there will be 254 100 new cancer cases and 87 900 cancer deaths in 2026.
- As in previous years, lung cancer is projected to be the most-diagnosed cancer (32 900) and the number one cause of cancer death (19 200) in both males (21%) and females (23%), causing 1 in 5 cancer deaths.
- Consistent with previous years, cancer rates are lowest in western Canada and highest in eastern Canada.
- Among males, the most common cancers are expected to be prostate (23%), lung (12%), colorectal (11%), and bladder (8%).
- In females, the most common cancers are expected to be breast (26%), lung (14%), colorectal (9%), and uterine (7%).
- For males, the cancer incidence rate is projected to be 16% higher and mortality rate 36% higher than for females.
- Pancreatic cancer is increasing and is projected to be the third leading cause of cancer death.
- Some types of cancers are declining, with colorectal cancer projected to be 32% lower in males and 29% lower in females compared with the early 2000s.
- However, more females than males are projected to be diagnosed with lung cancer in 2026.
"A higher proportion of lung cancers among females are not explained by tobacco consumption, suggesting that additional exposures — including lifestyle factors, radon, and air pollution — may need to be addressed to further reduce cancer incidence," write the authors. "Many provinces have now initiated screening programs for lung cancer, at various levels of implementation, that should enable earlier detection and, combined with advances in the clinical management of disease, should lead to reduced mortality."
Screening programs and advances in treatments have contributed to declining rates among some cancers.
"Five-year survival has improved for many cancers, even for late-stage cancers, through advances in surgical, radiation, and systemic therapies," write the authors. "Several cancers are now treated with curative intent, where only a decade ago, outcomes were very poor," leading to greater numbers of people living with, and beyond, cancer.
