Wildfires, storms, and bark beetle are putting increasing pressure on Europe's forests. Beyond their ecological toll, these events also carry major economic consequences. Researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have now quantified the potential financial losses climate change could cause for European forestry. Their findings reveal significant regional differences: while Northern Europe may even benefit, Central and Southern Europe will need to adapt quickly.
Forest disturbances regularly cause damages worth millions. The wood price then decreases rapidly due to large amounts of damaged timber or the wood is so badly damaged that it cannot be sold at all. Timber may suddenly flood the market in large volumes or be so badly damaged it can no longer be sold. For the first time, a team led by Rupert Seidl, Professor of Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management, Thomas Knoke, Professor of Forest Management, and PhD-Student Johannes Sonnweber Mohr has calculated how climate change could affect the economic value of Europe's forests.
The study, recently published in Nature Climate Change, examines the expected climate scenarios for the end of the century. Using computer models, the team simulated how Europe's forests might grow under different climate conditions and how wildfires, storms, and bark beetle could shape forest development and timber harvests.
Gains in Northern Europe, losses in Central and Southern Europe
The study shows that global warming will bring varied—and sometimes opposing—effects. "With ongoing climate change, large-scale disturbances will become more frequent, and costs for forest owners will rise," says Rupert Seidl. "While damages across Europe amounted to around €115 billion during the reference period from 1981 to 2005, all our scenarios show an significant increase. Under 4.8 degrees of warming, costs could climb as high as €247 billion."
At the same time, longer growing seasons, higher temperatures, and rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations could accelerate tree growth in some regions, putting timber on the market more quickly. The result: not only higher costs from disturbances but also higher revenues at the European level overall.
However, these gains are unevenly distributed. In Southern Europe, damages exceed additional revenues under every scenario. In Central Europe—including Germany, Austria, and the Czech Republic—the value of forests declines sharply even at moderate warming of 2.6 degrees, leaving possible increased production barely able to offset losses. In contrast, Scandinavian forests are less often hit by disturbances and benefit the most from changing conditions. There, productivity gains could even outweigh the costs.
"Forestry can no longer follow a one-size-fits-all approach"
"Modeling always focuses on selected aspects," explains first author Johannes Sonnweber Mohr, a researcher at the Chair of Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management. "We concentrated on the three most common disturbance types today, but new ones may emerge. What we see overall is that uncertainties for the future are rising sharply. Forestry can no longer follow a one-size-fits-all approach—it's becoming less and less predictable. Using these insights to adapt forest management to climate change could reduce economic losses while fostering more climate-resilient forests with high ecological value."
According to the researchers, careful economic evaluation is key to effective adaptation. "By comparing simulations with and without disturbances, we can directly quantify their financial impact on forest owners," says Thomas Knoke. "This also highlights the advantages of structurally diverse mixed forests. While they are often seen as less profitable than conifer-dominated forests, their lower susceptibility to disturbances could make them much more valuable in the future than they might appear today."
