The latest data on Australia's apprenticeship system released by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) paints a concerning picture for the future skills needed to deliver our priorities as a country.
In the 12 months to September 2025, trade apprenticeship commencements are down almost 10%, while non-trade commencements (traineeships) are down just over 18%. For more details, refer to our accompanying Research Note.
This is the latest decline in a clear downward trend in commencements that has been underway for several years. While there are some potential green shoots in the most recent quarter related to commencements in construction-related qualifications, it is too soon to know if this is reflective of a longer-term trend.
What makes these commencement numbers even more concerning is that they relate to commencements last year. The headwinds for businesses employing apprentices and trainees have increased since then.
From January 2026, the Australian Government reduced employer incentives for employers taking on apprentices and trainees in priority sectors outside of the housing and new energy sectors. The reductions impact a range of critical areas of skills need, including manufacturing and the care sector.
We now also have significant and growing uncertainty and disruption for many businesses linked to the Middle East conflict. There is clear evidence from previous disruptions that this uncertainty creates further difficulty and hesitation in employing apprentices and trainees, just like any other significant and long-term investment decision.
Research by Australian Industry Group's Centre for Education and Training in 2025 made clear the critical role of employer incentives in ensuring that apprenticeships and traineeships are viable for employers. It found that around half of employers surveyed report that their employment of apprentices and trainees would reduce if they no longer received financial incentives.
If Australia is serious about increasing housing supply, delivering major infrastructure, managing the energy transition, delivering high-quality services, local manufacturing and strengthening sovereign capability we cannot do it without a steady pipeline of skills.
Skilled workers like carpenters, welders, electricians, hairdressers and care workers don't just appear overnight. They are developed over extended periods of time through apprenticeships and traineeships that combine training with real work undertaken in real workplaces.
We know that demand for these skilled workers is high and workforce shortages are constraining business activity. Technicians and Trades Workers, for which apprenticeships and traineeships are a primary skills pipeline, make up over half of all occupations classified as in persistent shortage by Jobs and Skills Australia.
Today's declining commencements are tomorrow's severe skill shortages—shortages that risk slowing projects, raising costs and placing a further brake on productivity.
As a nation, we need more employers taking on more apprentices and trainees. We also need people of all ages to aspire to the valuable career pathways that can be accessed through the system and be supported to successfully complete their training.
But this can only happen through a renewed and concerted effort on ensuring the system remains viable for employers into the future. Without an employer, there is no apprenticeship.
There are many demands on the upcoming Federal Budget, which have only increased in recent weeks. But priority must be placed on turning around declining apprenticeship commencements to shore up our pipeline of critical skills in the years ahead.
The risk of inaction is immense and there is no time to waste.
