Patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the immune-tolerant phase may still experience hepatic inflammation and disease progression, and could benefit from early antiviral treatment. This study aimed to investigate changes in the cumulative hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)/HBV DNA ratio in immune-tolerant patients during the transition to the immune-active phase, and to evaluate its potential in predicting the risk of disease progression.
Methods
This longitudinal study included 127 untreated immune-tolerant patients, who were followed for up to 10 years. An independent cohort of 109 subjects was retrospectively enrolled for external validation. The relationship between the cumulative HBsAg/HBV DNA ratio and the duration of immune tolerance or transition to the immune-active phase was examined. The predictive value of the ratio was assessed and validated.
Results
The relationship between the cumulative HBsAg/HBV DNA ratio and disease progression risk showed a non-linear pattern: below a ratio of 1.791, the risk of disease progression decreased rapidly as the ratio increased; above 1.791, the risk plateaued. The area under the curve for predicting disease progression was 0.67, 0.64, and 0.85 for cumulative HBsAg, HBV DNA, and the HBsAg/HBV DNA ratio, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed the cumulative HBsAg/HBV DNA ratio as an independent predictor of disease progression, with higher ratios associated with a lower risk. Prediction models incorporating this ratio were developed and externally validated, demonstrating strong performance and clinical utility.
Conclusions
This study identifies the cumulative HBsAg/HBV DNA ratio as an independent predictor of immune tolerance duration in patients with chronic HBV infection. A lower ratio correlates with an increased risk of transition from the immune-tolerant phase to the immune-active phase, particularly when it falls below 1.791, at which point the risk of disease progression increases sharply. Additionally, patients aged ≥30 years face a notably higher risk of disease progression, underscoring the need for vigilant monitoring in this population. These findings have important implications for the proactive management of immune-tolerant patients. Early detection of disease progression and timely antiviral treatment may ultimately improve clinical outcomes and societal benefits for individuals suffering from chronic HBV infection.
Full text
https://www.xiahepublishing.com/2310-8819/JCTH-2025-00205
The study was recently published in the Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology .
The Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology (JCTH) is owned by the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University and published by XIA & HE Publishing Inc. JCTH publishes high quality, peer reviewed studies in the translational and clinical human health sciences of liver diseases. JCTH has established high standards for publication of original research, which are characterized by a study's novelty, quality, and ethical conduct in the scientific process as well as in the communication of the research findings. Each issue includes articles by leading authorities on topics in hepatology that are germane to the most current challenges in the field. Special features include reports on the latest advances in drug development and technology that are relevant to liver diseases. Regular features of JCTH also include editorials, correspondences and invited commentaries on rapidly progressing areas in hepatology. All articles published by JCTH, both solicited and unsolicited, must pass our rigorous peer review process.
