Despite being among the most climate vulnerable regions in the world, public opinion from small island states and territories across the South Pacific, Indian Ocean and Caribbean has long been absent from the global discussions of the climate crisis. These countries face disproportionate climate impacts — from sea-level rise to intensifying storms to fresh water contamination, increasing diseases and other health risks — even though they bear virtually no responsibility for the climate crisis.
A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences fills this gap. Led by a team of UC Santa Barbara researchers in partnership with scholars at Stanford University, University of Pennsylvania, UC San Diego and UCLA, it represents the first global climate survey of these regions. The study found that there is near-universal acceptance of human-caused climate change, high levels of concern about climate-linked environmental threats, and that small-island respondents support an "all hands on deck" approach to addressing the climate crisis.
"We began this work after we discovered that 30 countries in the world had never been included in a global climate survey — and that these were the countries at the frontlines of climate impacts," said Matto Mildenberger, an associate professor of political science at UCSB and the lead author on the paper. "This has meant that voices from the most climate vulnerable countries and territories in the world have been missing from opinion research."
This lack of opinion research means that the beliefs and preferences of communities across small island countries and territories have not been accounted for in global climate policy development.
"Our research arrives at a critical moment as the international community seeks to redress the impacts of climate change on the world's most climate-exposed societies," added co-author Paasha Mahdavi, an associate professor of political science at UCSB. "We directly measure the attitudes and preferences of individuals in small island states regarding whom they see as responsible for solving climate change."
Between June and July 2022, the research team led a Facebook advertising campaign in 55 small island states and territories that directed respondents to a survey — delivered in the most common language of the area — that asked their opinion on climate change. Survey participants were asked about their experiences with extreme weather, attitude around climate change, opinion on climate adaptation policies, as well as their perceptions on global climate politics, displacement and migration, and how they would assign responsibility for addressing the climate crisis.
Researchers found that there are very high levels of belief in human-caused climate change, ranging from a low of 89% in Anguilla to 100% in Marshall Islands, Turks and Caicos. "Not only do residents of small-island countries face some of the highest vulnerability to climate change around the world, they also have among the highest belief in climate change and level of concern that we've ever observed," said Gabriel De Roche, a postdoctoral fellow at UCSB and a co-author on the paper. "We find very high levels of concern not just for their own neighbors and countries, but for people the world over."
Large majorities in every country or territory were also worried about their personal vulnerability to climate impacts, including extreme weather, sea-level rise, coastal erosion and, to a lesser extent, drinking water contamination. Additionally, climate-vulnerable residents perceive that residents of rich countries will also be impacted by climate change, seeing the problem as universal and severe for countries other than their own.
"Interestingly, while many residents in places like the United States view climate change as primarily affecting other countries, we found that residents of small island states and territories view impacts of the climate crisis as a global phenomenon," said Mildenberger. "Respondents indicated that they view climate impacts as proximate for themselves as well as for distant communities and more developed countries."
Critically, the study found that respondents generally favor an "all hands on deck" approach to the climate crisis, with responsibility for solving climate change falling on countries who are historic or current major sources of climate pollution, as well as former colonial powers and home-country governments. This finding is important as global discussions around how to assign responsibility for addressing the climate crisis increase.
"A July 2025 ruling by the International Court of Justice — the highest court of the United Nations — has for the first time recognized that people whose lives are upended by climate change may be entitled to 'climate reparations' from large emitters like the United States and China," said Mahdavi. "Our findings paint a nuanced and complex picture that reveals grassroots belief in responsibility not just for large emitters, but also smaller-emitting colonial powers like Spain and the Netherlands, as well as fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia. We see these nuances as an important empirical component for policy discussions moving forward in light of the ICJ ruling."
Their findings, the researchers assert, indicate that communities in small island states and territories similarly favor an "all hands on deck" approach — supporting global climate action, as well as efforts from their local governments — given the urgency of the climate crisis.
"Our research finds an urgent demand for ambitious climate action from residents of small island states and territories," said De Roche. "This population, among the most affected by climate change's negative impacts, is calling for all hands on deck action on climate adaptation and resilience. We see a clear opportunity for leaders from these small island states to push for ambitious policy on climate adaptation and resilience by large current polluters, former colonial powers, and within their own governments."
