Experts from across King's have this month marked ten years since the Brexit referendum in 2016 with a series of events, new research and media commentary.
"After 10 years of political turbulence and economic concern about the consequences of leaving, what's perhaps most notable is how glacially slowly opinions have shifted - at this rate, it'll be many more years before we get to a clearcut demand for change."
Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute at King's College London
Ten years on, debate continues over the lasting effects of the referendum on Britain's politics, economy, and place in the world. From shifts in domestic policy to changing relationships with European and global partners, Brexit has reshaped the UK in complex and often unexpected ways.
New polling from the Policy Institute at King's and Ipsos shows that more people (38%) now think the referendum was a mistake compared to around a quarter (24%) in 2016.
The findings, based on a survey of 2245 Britons aged 18+, also show that nearly half (48%) say Brexit is going worse than they expected - up from 28% back in March 2021, while just 9% say it is going better than expected.
Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute at King's, said: "After 10 years of political turbulence and economic concern about the consequences of leaving, what's perhaps most notable is how glacially slowly opinions have shifted - at this rate, it'll be many more years before we get to a clearcut demand for change."
Professor Anand Menon, Faculty of Social Sciences & Public Policy at King's, spoke to the i paper and said: "The challenge of assessing the impact of Brexit is made terribly complicated by the fact that not only did we have Brexit, but we had Covid-19, we had the war in Ukraine, we've got what's going on in the Gulf now. The data is extremely noisy and messy - but here's what we can speculate on. We'd be more prosperous if we'd voted Remain. The evidence is unequivocal on that front."
Professor Jonathan Portes, Faculty of Social Sciences & Public Policy at King's said to the LA Times this week: "Brexit has made the U.K. economy smaller than it otherwise would have been. The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity."
Across King's, Professor Paul Mizen at King's Business School has also carried out research on the economic impact of Brexit, with the latest figures showing UK investment is up to 13% lower and UK GDP is up to 8% lower.
Tonight, on the eve on the Brexit anniversary, King's will also host a special Experts On series, chaired by Kings alum Jane Corbin, to discuss the legacy of the UK's decision to leave the EU. King's academics, Professor Anand Menon and Dr Maeve Ryan will be joined by the Rt Hon Lord Kinnock and Dr Swati Dhingra, Associate, Centre for Economic Performance and External member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England.
The discussion will examine how research at King's has helped shape understanding of Brexit's impacts, how policymakers assess the current UK-EU landscape, and what lessons can be learned as the UK navigates the next phase of its relationship with Europe and the wider world.
