Ofsted reports are an influential factor parents consider when choosing a primary school, with families abandoning schools after poor reports, according to new research.
While Ofsted's power to reverse a school's fortunes has long been recognised, a new study by the University of Sussex and the University of Exeter is the first to prove a direct causal relationship between Ofsted reports and parents' school choices.
Analysing Department for Education data for a whole cohort of families applying for a primary school place, the researchers found a favourable Ofsted report led to a noticeable rise in parents choosing a school – around a 5% increase in the number of first choices – but a drop had an even bigger effect – an 11% fall.
With schools receiving about £5,000 in school funding for each child, a reduction in new pupils can have significant financial implications for a school and its future plans, which creates a strong incentive for schools to improve their Ofsted rating. The research found that the effect of a change in Ofsted rating on enrolment was more muted, however, reflecting the few spare places in England's schools during the study period.
The study used data from before Ofsted's one-word ratings system was replaced by more detailed report cards in November 2025. One benefit of the previous system might have been the simple and salient, easily digestible information, which was accessible for all types of families. The researchers found that parents whose children qualified for free school meals were equally responsive to changes in Ofsted reports when it came to choosing a school.
Dr Ellen Greaves, Lecturer in Economics at the University of Exeter said:
"School choice is actively used by many families in England, with fewer than half of parents nominating their closest primary school as their first choice. Parents of all backgrounds valued the information provided by the previous system of Ofsted inspections when making this important choice, responding significantly to up- or down-ratings. This provided incentives for all schools to improve or maintain their inspection rating, as school budgets are primarily determined by pupil numbers. Whether this continues under the new system, and whether incentives act to improve the quality of children's educational experience and wellbeing at school, should be the subject of further research."
Dr Iftikhar Hussain, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex said:
"For the first time this data shows us that parents are actively avoiding schools that get downgraded by Ofsted. While the new report card system was designed for greater nuance it has failed to answer the core issue of whether inspection outcomes accurately reflect the quality of education. England has the most stringent school inspection regime in the world, yet the lack of scrutiny Ofsted has come under is at odds with the power it wields."
The researchers conducted a 'natural experiment' using national administrative data from all households applying to primary schools. To isolate the effect of Ofsted on parental choices they compared schools that experienced the same change in Ofsted rating, and divided them into two groups depending on whether the change happened before or after the January application deadline.
The importance of school quality ratings for school choices: Evidence from a nationwide system is published in the Journal of Public Economics.
