LSHTM expert discusses European and UK heatwaves, how they impact our health, and what countries need to do to adapt
On 26 June 2026 an estimated 150 million Europeans will experience temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius as part of the ongoing heatwaves affecting Europe and the UK.
Temperatures in excess of 40 degrees Celsius are forecast for parts of Germany and Poland this weekend. Meanwhile in the UK the record for the hottest June day has been broken for the third day in a row, with temperatures provisionally hitting 36.9C in Wattisham, Suffolk.
Dr Malcolm Mistry, Assistant Professor in Climate and Geo-spatial Modelling in the Environment and Health Modelling Lab at LSHTM, discusses the factors behind the current heatwave, why it's damaging for our health, and how we need to adapt:
Why is the current European heatwave so serious?
The current European heatwave is serious because of several reasons. First, it is smashing both daily maximum and minimum temperature records across several regions in Europe, at times by 5-10 degrees Celsius for this time of the year. This means that the local population are not only exposed to dangerous heat during daytime, but also higher nighttime temperatures that are exceeding 20 degrees Celsius (referred to as Tropical Nights) quite significantly.
In the absence of effective indoor cooling, these nighttime temperatures are therefore offering no respite from daytime heat, which from a health perspective is quite important for the human body to recover from exposures to higher daytime temperatures, especially for the more vulnerable individuals such as infants, children, elderly, pregnant women and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Second, and possibly even more important, is the persistence of this heatwave. Several parts of Southern Europe such as regions in Spain and France, are experiencing or forecast to see these recording breaking maximum and minimum temperatures for nearly five to six days at a stretch. This can burden the local health system with increased hospital admissions due to heat-related illness and possibly high fatalities bringing back memories of the infamous European summer of 2003.
How does the heatwave in Europe compare to what we're experiencing in the UK?
While in many regions across Europe, such as in France and Spain, almost the whole country is baking in high temperatures, the weather pattern across the UK is quite heterogeneous.
Southern and eastern parts of the UK are seeing more dry and hot weather, including light or no cloud cover, compared to the northern and western regions that are a bit shielded from extreme temperatures and also experiencing periods of heavy rain.
In general, there are more thunderstorms across UK than most regions in Europe, and this is because the UK is currently sitting between competing weather patterns in the upper atmosphere.
Do we know if this heatwave is due to manmade climate change? Could it be due to natural phenomena like El Niño?
Several independent analysis include the rapid attribution study published today by the WWA- Grantham Institute have demonstrated that the current El Niño that is accelerating in strength though not reached its peak, have very little or no significance on the current European heatwave.
By and large, the weather patterns, especially the summer temperatures, are not influenced by El Niño, but are instead influenced more by natural climate variability in the Atlantic. On this occasion though, the rapid attribution analysis by the WWA has once again shown how heatwaves globally (including the current one in Europe) would be almost impossible to match in magnitude in a natural climate.
How is it different to the hot summers of the past, such as 1976?
Put simply, the heatwave in 1976 was remarkable in its duration. Maximum temperatures exceeding just over 32 degrees Celsius persisted for more than two weeks in parts of the UK.
And yet, its peak temperatures and the geographical extent, were comparatively mild in relation to the present heatwave. Two independent rapid analysis by the World Weather Attributor and the University of Reading, both conclude that the heatwaves in present-day climate are about three degrees Celsius warmer compared to the corresponding event in 1976. And this additional heat is thanks to the human-induced warming.
What do European countries/the UK need to do to prepare for heatwaves?
The 2003 summer heatwave and the associated deaths in Europe were a huge wakeup call for the regional public health authorities. Several positive measures, such as heat action plans and heat-health early warning and surveillance systems, push for additional green space and better urban planning, have gathered pace in countries such as France, Italy, Spain and even in the UK. Yet, the challenge remains on several fronts.
For one, the accelerating global warming and in particular with Europe warming about twice as fast the global average, implies that the adaptation and preparedness at the ground-level are being fast outpaced by record breaking heatwaves.
Europe's ageing population coupled with lower penetration of residential air conditioning compared to the US and Japan is often cited as a key reason for the lack of sufficient capacity for indoor space cooling. But air conditioning brings other challenges, such as adding heat back to urban spaces, increasing energy consumption that are invariability fossil-fuel driven, energy poverty (i.e., increasing household expenditure on energy bills), and also possible leakage of greenhouse gases used for cooling.
Europe, but also the rest of the world, require urgent twofold strategy. Rapid reduction of greenhouse emissions towards net zero, which sadly remains a flip-flop policy both in the UK and globally. And efficient adaptation to heat by way of better urban planning, infrastructure (using modern engineering design and material), more green spaces, and passive or low-emission based active cooling measures.
The healthcare systems also require urgent investment to withstand the heat. The last thing anyone would want to see is the very equipment and medical staff at the forefront to save lives during a heatwave both succumbing to crippling heat. Both mitigation and adaptation are not going to be cheap, but if we wait more, the cost of inaction would only increase in the future.
This is a rapid reaction to a breaking news story.
