The actions taken now will be critical in determining whether the world can manage the shock caused by the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or face a far more serious food security crisis in the years to come, the Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), QU Dongyu, warned on Tuesday.
Qu was addressing a Special Event on the crisis in the Middle East during Rome Nutrition Week. The meeting, organized by the Government of Spain, was also attended by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, as well as the Executive Director of the World Food Programme, Cindy McCain, and the President of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, Alvaro Lario.
In his remarks, the FAO Director-General said the meeting in Rome was taking place at a moment of "profound geopolitical and economic fragility."
"What we are witnessing today is not only a geopolitical crisis, it is a systemic shock to the global agrifood system," Qu said.
The largest impacts of this crisis may not be immediate, however. They may emerge months from now, when farmers begin harvesting less because they planted less, fertilized less, or could no longer afford production.
"The decisions we make now will determine whether this remains a manageable shock, or evolves into a deeper global food security crisis in 2026 and 2027, and beyond," Qu told the meeting.
FAO notes that severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already affected the movement of oil, liquefied natural gas, sulfur, and fertilizers - driving up agricultural input costs and placing upward pressure on seed prices due to their dependence on fertilizers. As energy prices rise, agrifood systems become more expensive across all regions.
Input import-dependent countries, in particular, are facing rising bills, while vulnerable households are losing purchasing power as inflation erodes incomes.
For many countries, especially in Africa and parts of Asia, these impacts are not occurring in isolation; they are compounding existing pressures from debt distress, climate shocks, conflict, and constrained public finances.
"We must act early before humanitarian and economic costs rise," the Director-General said.
FAO has already responded by mobilizing technical support, strengthening monitoring systems, and expanding coordination through mechanisms such as the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS).
Policy recommendations
FAO has already issued a series of evidence-based policy recommendations for governments and partners. These include:
- Keep trade flowing: Export restrictions, particularly on fertilizers and agricultural inputs, must be avoided. These measures intensify shortages, increase instability, and hurt poorer import-dependent countries most.
- Smarter agricultural responses: Traditional emergency packages centered exclusively on fertilizer-intensive systems may no longer be viable under current conditions. Countries should support adaptive strategies such as inter-cropping, improving nitrogen efficiency, and promoting crops less dependent on synthetic fertilizers.
- Targeted support: Resources should focus on the most vulnerable populations through targeted social protection systems and rural support mechanisms.
- Support from international financial institutions: Farmers and other stakeholders across agrifood systems, as well as import-dependent countries, need liquidity support now - before the next agricultural cycle. A delay in financing will result in lost production.
The crisis has highlighted the dependency of agrifood systems on a limited number of trade bottlenecks and fertilizer suppliers. Addressing this requires more diversified logistics corridors, stronger regional trade integration, strategic reserves, resilient rural infrastructure, and greater energy diversification across agrifood systems.
This is particularly crucial at a time of elevated climate risk from a potentially strong El Niño, which could further amplify existing pressures and disruptions to supply chains.
"We have a window to act, but that window is narrowing," Qu noted.
Tuesday's event took place during Rome Nutrition Week 2026, a global convening space at FAO headquarters in the Italian capital dedicated to advancing coherent nutrition action across the UN system and beyond.
This year's edition was taking place under the overarching theme Shaping the Future of Joint Nutrition Action in a Changing World.
"This week, as we mark Rome Nutrition Week 2026, we must remember that food security will be guaranteed only when nutritious food is available, accessible, and affordable," Qu said, noting that the shock to fertilizer availability will reduce the protein content and micronutrient density of staple foods. When soils are degraded due to lack of inputs, the fruits and vegetables that form the foundation of healthy diets become scarcer and more expensive.
"It is critical that even amidst supply shocks, we must protect the nutritional integrity of our agrifood systems," Qu said.
The Director-General thanked Spain for being a strategic ally and a steadfast pillar for FAO in the fight against hunger and malnutrition and thanked Prime Minister Sánchez for his "ongoing commitment to multilateralism, agrifood systems transformation and rural development."
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