Grades from compulsory school determine which pupils are accepted into popular upper secondary programmes. A new thesis from Uppsala University shows that pupils at for-profit independent schools have, on average, higher grades than would statistically be expected given their backgrounds. The findings suggest that grading is more generous in independent schools and that the differences in grades may give pupils from high-income households a greater advantage in the competition for places at upper secondary school, at the expense of other pupils.
Grades play a central role in the Swedish education system. Pupils compete for places at upper secondary school on the basis of merit ratings set by teachers at different schools. For the selection process to be fair, the same grade must therefore have roughly the same meaning regardless of where it was awarded.
This issue has received increasing attention in recent years. Average grades in Sweden have risen, at the same time as growth in external measures of attainment has, at times, been considerably weaker.
"If grades are to be used to rank pupils, we must be able to trust that they are comparable. My research shows that for-profit independent schools achieve above-average grades; in other words, the schools' average grades are higher than would statistically be expected given the pupils' backgrounds and local circumstances," says Tommie Rappe Petersson, PhD student at the Department of Education, Uppsala University.
In his new thesis, Grades in the School Market, Rappe Petersson examines final grades in Swedish compulsory schools over the period 1998–2022. Using data from Swedish registers, he tracks trends in school grades over more than two decades and compares pupil groups, municipal schools and different types of independent school. He also investigates how grades are linked to the proportion of pupils in the municipality who attend independent schools.
Socioeconomic background plays a greater role in areas where there are more independent schools
The results show that the link between parents' level of education and pupils' final grades has become stronger over time. The correlation is also consistently strongest in municipalities where independent schools account for a larger part of local school provision.
"School has a compensatory task. Among other things, this involves supporting pupils from homes where there is less of a tradition of studying, so that they have a good chance of succeeding in their studies. However, my findings show that the link between parents' educational attainment and pupils' grades is strongest in municipalities where a larger proportion of pupils attend independent schools. This raises questions about how effectively schools are able to compensate for the different circumstances of pupils in these municipalities."
Inflated grades in independent schools
An in-depth analysis of the period 2014–2022 compares the grades of pupils in municipal schools and independent schools. The comparison takes into account differences in factors such as pupils' gender and migration background, parents' educational attainment, family income and local circumstances.
Both for-profit and non-profit independent schools have, on average, higher grades. Grades are highest in for-profit independent schools but there are also significant differences between different independent school companies.
The thesis also highlights differences in staffing levels and resources across schools. On average, independent schools have fewer teachers and guidance counsellers per pupil, a lower proportion of certified teachers and a lower proportion of teachers with a degree in special educational than municipal schools. Teachers' salaries are also lower and fewer pupils have access to school libraries.
"Higher grades cannot be taken as an automatic indication of better teaching. The results suggest that grading is more lenient in independent schools, particularly the for-profit ones. This is why grading practices need to be monitored and reviewed in both municipal schools and independent schools.
Eskilstuna Municipality stands out
One example is Eskilstuna, where almost one in three school leavers attended a for-profit independent school during the period 2014–2022. On average, these pupils had a lead of around 25 merit-rating points over pupils in municipal schools in the same municipality, after taking into account differences in the pupils' backgrounds. This is equivalent to a pupil moving from a C to an A in five different subjects. That was the largest lead among the municipalities surveyed. This pattern is repeated in municipalities which, taken together, account for 91 per cent of school leavers in the 84 municipalities surveyed.
In municipalities where the grading lead enjoyed by pupils at for-profit independent schools is greater, pupils whose parents are both highly educated and have high household incomes also enjoy a greater grading advantage.
"The results suggest that inflated grades may reinforce the head start enjoyed by pupils from high-income households. School has an explicit mandate to promote equality. We must be able to support those who are struggling, so that everyone has a fair chance of succeeding in their studies. This pattern points in the opposite direction."
Tommie Rappe Petersson will defend his thesis on 6 November.
About the thesis
Grades in the School Market: Socioeconomic Background, Provider Structure, and Final Grades in Compulsory School in Sweden, 1998–2022 investigates how pupils' socioeconomic backgrounds and the structure of schools relate to final grades in Swedish compulsory education.
Sweden's school system and grading in brief
- 1989–1991: Reforms decentralised responsibility for public schools to municipalities.
- 1992: A voucher reform enabled the expansion of independent schools: privately run schools receiving public funding. Today, these schools charge no tuition fees and may operate for profit.
- 1994–1998: Curriculum and grading reforms replaced relative grading with assessment against specified criteria. Teacher-awarded subject grades are converted into points and added together to form a pupil's merit rating, used to rank applicants for upper secondary programmes when they leave compulsory school at around age 16.
- 2025/26: Independent schools educate 16 per cent of compulsory-school pupils. Of these pupils, 74 per cent attend schools run by limited companies.
- Equal opportunities: Schools are required to help offset differences in pupils' backgrounds and circumstances.
- Interpreting the findings: "Higher than expected grades" refers to grades above the level statistically expected given pupils' backgrounds and local circumstances.
