Cairo/Beirut, 30 June 2026 - A new policy brief released today by UN Women and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) warns that the ongoing 2026 Middle East crisis could significantly deepen risks to women's employment and economic participation across the Arab States, threatening to reverse years of progress on women's economic empowerment.
Titled Women's Employment at Risk in the Arab States: Unequal Exposure to the 2026 Middle East Crisis and Implications for Policy, the brief highlights how the economic shock generated by the crisis is disproportionately affecting women due to structural inequalities in labour markets, high levels of informal employment, and women's concentration in sectors vulnerable to fiscal pressures and economic contraction.
Scenario-based estimates referenced in the brief indicate that the crisis could lead to GDP losses of up to USD 194 billion across the Arab States, place up to 3.6 million jobs at risk, and push as many as 4 million additional people into poverty. The largest macroeconomic losses are concentrated in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Mashreq subregions.
The brief finds that women face heightened exposure to employment instability through two interconnected channels. In the short term, demand contractions in private and informal sectors could place between 34,000 and 56,000 women's jobs immediately at risk across Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, potentially rising to nearly 80,000 jobs under high-stress scenarios. In the medium term, tightening fiscal space could affect women's employment in education, health and public administration through hiring freezes, wage erosion and salary arrears.
Across Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, around half of employed women work in education, health and public administration, while informality among women ranges from 40 to 71 per cent of total employment.
"The economic consequences of crisis are never experienced equally. Women across the Arab States are already navigating some of the world's lowest rates of labour force participation, high levels of informal work, and limited access to social protection," said Dr. Moez Doraid, UN Women Regional Director for the Arab States. "Without deliberate measures to protect women's livelihoods and access to decent work, this crisis risks deepening inequalities and reversing important progress on women's economic empowerment across the region."
"Historically, women in the Arab region were heavily located in the public sector and are concentrated in health, education and public administration. As countries tighten fiscal space in response to the crisis, the risk is not dramatic layoffs as the case in the private sector, but a quiet erosion through hiring freezes, wage compression, and salary arrears," said ESCWA Acting Deputy Executive Secretary Mehrinaz El-Awady. "A crisis that pushes women out of the labour force is not just a social setback, it is a macroeconomic one."
The brief also warns that women working informally remain particularly vulnerable due to limited access to contracts, social protection, unemployment benefits and income security. Women-led enterprises are also at heightened risk during periods of economic stress, as tightening credit conditions and structural barriers to finance constrain their ability to sustain operations and retain workers.
The policy brief calls for urgent and targeted measures to protect women's livelihoods and prevent long-term economic and social setbacks. Recommendations include expanding income protection and emergency support for women in informal and private sector employment, safeguarding education and health budgets, protecting women-led enterprises from credit tightening, preventing public sector hiring freezes from disproportionately excluding young women, and strengthening sex-disaggregated labour market monitoring.
The brief underscores that protecting women's employment is critical not only for advancing equality between women and men, but also for supporting economic recovery, social stability and long-term development across the region.
