Droughts have an immediately negative impact on agricultural production, but they can also trigger institutional and cultural transformations that help make societies more resilient to environmental crises. This is the main conclusion of the article "Climate shocks, democratization and (a culture of) cooperation", published in the journal Economica by economists Giacomo Benati, from the University of Barcelona, and Carmine Guerriero, from the University of Bologna. Based on an analysis of 38 of the world's most agricultural countries during the 1960-2018 period, the authors show that drought episodes are associated with an evolution towards more inclusive political institutions and a strengthening of social norms of trust and cooperation.
The study begins with a question that the economic literature had not yet fully resolved: how do extreme climatic phenomena influence the evolution of political institutions and social norms? To address this question, the authors first develop a theoretical model based on the time inconsistency theory of state-building, according to which political elites may be incentivised to share power when they need to secure the cooperation of social groups that contribute to production. They then contrast this hypothesis with an empirical analysis based on data from 38 countries with a high dependence on agriculture, observed between 1960 and 2018. The authors note that the results obtained are consistent with the proposed theoretical framework, but do not constitute a definitive causal demonstration.
The results indicate that adverse climate shocks associated with droughts directly reduce agricultural output, but are also linked to political reforms that increase constraints on executive power and thus foster more inclusive institutions. These institutional transformations also involve a shift in public spending priorities, directing funds towards health services and away from military expenditure. At the same time, the authors observe that climate crises help to reinforce social norms of trust and respect, both in the short term and through intergenerational cultural transmission processes. According to the analysis, this culture of cooperation is the element that shows the closest relationship with the subsequent recovery of agricultural production, although the authors warn that this relationship should not be interpreted as causal.
