When implementing hazard detection and forecasting, Europe's diversity is a rich resource for innovation, knowledge sharing and solidarity
Across Europe, the realities of climate change and extreme weather events are becoming impossible to ignore. The past years have seen a sharp increase in disasters. 2024 alone experienced record-breaking wildfires in Greece, deadly heatwaves across Southeastern Europe, and catastrophic floods in Valencia, Spain ( European State of Climate Report 2024 ). Notably, Storm Boris brought exceptional rainfall that led to major inundation across large parts of Central and Eastern Europe. The map below vividly illustrates the scope of this event: between 12-16 September, some areas received more than three times their average monthly precipitation in just five days (Fig. 1). These events reveal the widespread exposure of large parts of the continent to a variety of climate extremes, and the urgent need for timely, efficient and inclusive early warning systems. In this context, resilience to disasters must be embraced as a shared responsibility in the face of a shared risk.
A strong, well-functioning early warning system is one of the most effective tools for reducing disaster risk. When fully operational, such systems provide critical lead time that allows communities to take protective action, emergency services to prepare resources and governments to coordinate responses ( Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024 ). Beyond saving lives, these systems strengthen public trust, support economic stability and contribute to broader climate resilience. In a future marked by increasingly frequent and severe hazards, investing in comprehensive early warning infrastructure is both a humanitarian imperative and a strategic necessity.
Yet, Europe's early warning landscape is characterized by profound contrasts. Many Western and Central European countries boast highly advanced, multi-hazard early warning systems supported by sophisticated institutional frameworks, robust observational networks, and extensive modelling capacities. On the other hand, other parts of Europe - particularly South-East Europe and the South Caucasus - are still working to establish the foundational components of effective warning systems: gaps remain in basic hazard monitoring, risk mapping, data sharing protocols and the ability to deliver timely warnings to communities. This diversity presents both challenges and unprecedented opportunities. East-West collaboration, knowledge transfer and peer-to-peer support can create a powerful momentum for progress. By investing in partnerships, Europe can create a more cohesive and equitable early warning landscape.
The Early Warnings for All initiative offers a unique and timely opportunity to bridge capacity gaps, to promote collaboration between East and West and to strengthen the links in the early warning value chain - from hazard detection to public response. The initiative is led jointly by WMO, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) with collaboration from other partners. WMO leads the effort to strengthen hazard detection - through monitoring, data sharing and analysis - and forecasting. When implementing hazard detection and forecasting, acknowledging Europe's diversity is essential, not as an obstacle, but as a rich resource for innovation, knowledge sharing and solidarity.
Challenges: Barriers to achieving Early Warnings for All
Despite clear imperatives and opportunities, several significant challenges stand in the way of achieving Early Warnings for All in Europe. Chief among them is the chronic under-resourcing of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in many parts of South-East Europe and the South Caucasus. These institutions often operate with outdated infrastructure, limited access to observational data and modern technologies, and severe shortages of trained personnel, making it difficult to provide timely and reliable forecasts, let alone evolve into multi-hazard early warning providers.
Cross-border data sharing and technical interoperability present another persistent challenge. While hazards do not respect national boundaries, information systems often do. Political sensitivities, outdated agreements and incompatible technologies hinder the seamless exchange of data needed for regional coordination. Without greater trust and integration, transboundary early warnings in the sub-region will remain fragmented and less effective than in the more advanced European countries.
Meanwhile, climate change continues to magnify risks in vulnerable regions, placing even greater strain on already stretched capacities. The prolonged heatwaves, forest fires and drought conditions that affected South-East Europe in 2024 are stark reminders of how climate variability exacerbates vulnerabilities, especially in countries that are least equipped to adapt.
Compounding these technical and environmental challenges is an increasingly uncertain funding landscape. While national governments are encouraged to prioritize investment in early warning systems, budgetary realities often fall short. Some regional initiatives that once benefitted from steady international funding now face existential threats due to the withdrawal or redirection of donor support. Without identifying alternative financing mechanisms, there is a real danger of reversing hard-won progress.
Systemic failures can occur beyond the meteorological domain. The lessons of the Ahrtal floods in Germany in 2021 - where shortcomings in risk communication and institutional coordination led to losses of life, which were avoidable - highlight the critical need to optimize the entire early warning value chain. Forecasts alone are not enough: warnings must lead to effective, timely public action.
Opportunities: Building resilience through collaboration
However, Europe also has strong assets to draw upon, numerous regional initiatives and programmes offer pathways for progress and cooperation.
For example, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) provides timely, reliable geospatial information for disaster risk management, response and recovery. In addition, CEMS supports major upgrades to flood forecasting systems such as EFAS and GloFAS , introduces enhanced drought indicators, and improves wildfire detection tools. Facilitating utilization of the Copernicus framework and tailoring products to local contexts could dramatically expand the reach and effectiveness of CEMS services.
MeteoAlarm exemplifies pan-European collaboration by uniting 38 NMHSs to provide standardized weather alerts throughout the continent. By utilizing a unified colour-coded system and universally recognized pictograms, it ensures that critical weather information is accessible and understandable, transcending language barriers. Its continuing expansion to more countries in Europe, along with the development of impact-based forecasting and real-time flood warnings, could bring even greater cross-border coherence to Europe's early warning landscape.
Regional systems such as the South-East European Multi-Hazard Early Warning Advisory System (SEE-MHEWS-A) and the South-East European Flash Flood Guidance System (SEEFGS) offer proven models for cooperation in Southeast Europe.
By providing shared access to forecasting tools and fostering cross-border communication, these systems have improved early warning capacities. However, both systems face serious threats as there is an urgent need for new investment and political support to ensure their sustainability.
HydroSOS , a WMO-led initiative, brings another opportunity. By offering standardized assessments of hydrological conditions and short- to medium-term forecasts, HydroSOS empowers national and regional actors to anticipate droughts, floods and other water-related risks. Expanding its implementation in regions with weak hydrological monitoring could greatly strengthen local resilience.
Moreover, peer networking and twinning arrangements between NMHSs, such as those established between Moldova and Sweden or between Finland and Ukraine , show that solidarity can overcome capacity gaps. Moldova and Sweden's partnership permits them to work to enhance forecasting, warnings and disaster communication systems. Finland and Ukraine's partnership focuses on modernizing weather infrastructure and automating services to improve accessibility and responsiveness for all users, including vulnerable groups. Other similar initiatives - like the evolving Regional Agrometeorological Centre for RA VI in Romania - aim to strengthen regional cooperation, develop skills and coordinate research to contribute to broader climate resilience efforts in Europe. These partnerships facilitate knowledge exchange and technical assistance and harmonize service delivery, creating a stronger and more integrated European weather and climate service community.
Emerging technologies offer yet another horizon of opportunity. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are beginning to revolutionize forecasting, hazard detection, and early warning dissemination ( Artificial Intelligence for Disaster Risk Reduction: Opportunities, challenges, and prospects ). As operational applications of AI and ML mature, ensuring that all countries - regardless of their current technological capacity - have access to these innovations will be essential to maintaining equity and maximizing the collective benefit.
Toward a Unified Early Warnings Future
The path to achieving Early Warnings for All across Europe demands determined action. It requires that solutions be tailored to national contexts, reflecting the unique needs and capacities of each country. It calls for deeper and more sustained engagement with development partners to unlock financial and technical resources. Above all, it necessitates strong political will to embed early warning priorities into national budgets, civil protection strategies and climate adaptation plans.
The strengthening of the technical backbone for early warning systems is central to this effort. WMO is working closely with national and regional partners to modernize observation infrastructure, enhance data sharing, and upgrade forecasting capacities. Closing capacity gaps between countries, particularly between East and West, is essential to building a seamless, resilient and equitable early warning architecture across the continent.
Truly effective early warning systems must involve civil society to ensure that alerts reach the most vulnerable groups and that communities are empowered to act on warnings. The protection offered by early warnings must be universal, accessible and actionable.
Europe's diversity is its strength. By embracing collaboration between East and West, sharing knowledge and standing in solidarity, the continent can bridge its early warning gaps. In doing so, Europe will not only protect its people and economies - it will set a powerful global example of collective resilience in the face of a changing climate.
