Yesterday was the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year, and Australian alpine resorts are running on snowmaking. The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared El Niño on 16 June, with forecasts pointing to below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures across south-eastern Australia through to at least the end of 2026. May 2026 global sea surface temperatures were the warmest May on record since 1900. The 2026 season has launched into one of the warmest starts to winter on record across the Australian Alps.
Protect Our Winters (POW) Australia says the focus on El Niño as a natural weather cycle misses the larger picture. Natural climate drivers have always shaped Australia's alpine seasons, but they are now performing on a baseline made significantly hotter by the burning of coal, oil and gas. Australian alpine snowfall has been declining at approximately 5.5 centimetres per decade since the 1950s. El Niño doesn't cause that trend. Fossil fuels do.
Dr Lily O'Neill, Board Director at POW Australia and Senior Research Fellow at Melbourne Climate Futures, said "El Niño is a natural cycle, but it is now performing on a climate stage made dangerously hot by coal, oil and gas projects. We can't let debates over weather cycles mask the fact that this is one of the warmest starts to winter on record, and that the long-term decline of our alpine snowpack is a direct consequence of fossil fuel burning."
Historical data from Spencer's Creek in the Snowy Mountains, the benchmark measure of Australian alpine snowpack since 1954, shows that El Niño years are associated with snow depths averaging around 35 centimetres below the all-years mean, with the snow season shortened by approximately two weeks. When El Niño coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which BOM models suggest is likely this winter-spring, conditions shift toward the leanest seasons on record. Australia's alpine resorts are already deploying sophisticated snowmaking to keep the season viable, but snowmaking cannot compensate for a structural, decades-long warming trend.
Dr Andrew Watkins, POW Science Alliance Member and Adjunct Professor at Monash University, said "A slow snow start in June isn't unusual, but a record-breaking warm winter baseline is. If Australia continues to approve and export coal and gas, we are actively shortening the lifespan of our alpine environments."
The stakes extend well beyond the ski season. Alpine communities contribute billions to the Australian economy, and snowpack underpins water availability for downstream communities across the Murray-Darling Basin. The long-term contraction of the snowpack threatens native biodiversity, regional economies and water security for millions of Australians.
"Engineering our way through bad seasons is possible for now. Engineering our way through a permanently warmer climate is not. The only solution that actually protects Australia's alpine future is stopping the emissions that are driving this warming, starting with a moratorium on new coal and gas projects," Dr O'Neill said.
Through its 'Protect Our Alpine Future' campaign, POW Australia is calling for a moratorium on new fossil fuel projects and a National Alpine Adaptation Plan to safeguard alpine communities, ecosystems and water resources.
