Since the first major bleaching event in 1996, Hawaiian corals have been subject to increasing heat stress and more prevalent bleaching events. New research from oceanographers at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa used high-resolution modeling that includes small-scale processes to examine projected heat stress on coral reefs over the 21st century. Comparing this heat stress to previous estimates of the rate at which corals may adapt to changing conditions, the authors found that Hawaiian corals have the possibility of adapting to future heat stress, even under a high emissions scenario.
"Our research shows that Hawaiian corals may be exposed to unprecedented human-induced heat stress in the coming decades," said Kate Feloy, lead author of the study, who conducted this work as part of her doctoral research in the Department of Oceanography in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST). "However, our results also provide some surprising hope that Hawaiian corals may be able to adapt to increasing temperatures."
Feloy and co-authors used high-resolution ocean simulations, run under three different climate emissions scenarios. The modeling approach accounts for small-scale processes and can reveal important spatial patterns in local warming. This is the first time this type of high-resolution climate projection has been used to assess future heat stress around the main Hawaiian islands.
Differences across the island chain
Coral reefs have high cultural and economic value and are a critical source of food and coastal protection in Hawaiʻi. This study provides projected heat stress not just for the region as a whole but examines differences across and between individual islands. The team's results show that not all coastal locations are projected to experience human-induced climate change at the same rate. They found that corals around Hawaiʻi Island are projected to experience higher heat stress than the other islands.
"The differences in warming are caused by complex ocean dynamics on small spatial scales in the waters around Hawaiʻi," Feloy said. "These dynamics change the spatial patterns of human-induced coastal warming. Because of the spatial differences in projected heat stress, the rate at which corals will need to adapt in order to keep pace with increasing temperatures varies around the islands."
For more see SOEST's website .
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