With political violence on the rise and fracturing stable nations, the future of democracy in Latin America is reaching a critical point, says a University of Michigan researcher.
Edgar Franco-Vivanco, assistant professor of political science at the University of Michigan, believes it is a shift that requires more than just a casual observation, which led to the founding of the Latin American Elections Hub, or LATAM-EH, which aims to enhance dialogue between the U.S. audience-particularly in Michigan and the Midwest-and Latin America.
The hub organizes expert panels to probe the national and global relevance of the region's most significant elections, providing data-driven analysis to journalists, policymakers and students.
"The idea is to bring together experts from different disciplines to discuss elections that have really high stakes," said Franco-Vivanco, who is also an affiliate of the Center for Political Studies at the U-M Institute for Social Research.
Colombia at the crossroads
Most recently, a LATAM-EH panel analyzed the upcoming 2026 Colombian presidential contest. Three scholars-Juan Delgado, Leydy Diossa-Jiménez and Camilo Nieto-Matiz-painted a multidimensional picture of a country facing a fractured ideological landscape and the persistent shadow of political violence.
According to Delgado, U-M assistant professor of sociology, Colombian politics has revolved around armed conflict for decades. However, following the 2016 peace agreement with FARC guerrillas, voter priorities have shifted toward health care, education and corruption, he said.
"This is the first time in many years in Colombia where we have unified support for a left-wing candidate and a split vote on the right," Delgado said.
While left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda currently leads polling for the May 31 election, the right remains split between populist Abelardo De La Espriella-whom Delgado likened to a "Colombian Trump"-and establishment conservative Paloma Valencia.
The diaspora 'canary in the coal mine'
The Colombian diaspora plays a uniquely important role in the nation's elections, says Diossa-Jiménez, a postdoctoral fellow at U-M's Center for Emerging Democracies. She says new data shows that the diaspora vote-which includes over 1.2 million registered voters-consistently runs about 15 percentage points to the right of the national result.
"Unless Cepeda clears 50% plus one in the first voting round on May 31, the diaspora pattern predicts the right will consolidate and he will not win the runoff," Diossa-Jiménez said.
Security and violence
The stakes are further complicated by a resurgence of political violence, says Nieto-Matiz, assistant professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio. He says that more than 200 victims of political violence have been recorded since the campaign began in March 2025.
Nieto-Matiz contends that today's armed groups are decentralized, targeting local officials who control municipal budgets. The regions experiencing the worst violence tend to support the left, though voters often attribute the instability to historical state abandonment rather than current policy.
Global Implications
The outcome of the May 31 vote will serve as a bellwether for the broader trajectory of left-wing governance and right-wing populism across Latin America, the researchers say.
Beyond research, LATAM-EH aims to bridge the gap between the classroom and the field as students engage directly with these regional experts. The hub plans to organize trips for students to serve as official electoral observers.
The hub's work continues this fall with a panel on the 2026 Brazilian elections scheduled for October.
