A new study published in Nature shows that as the global economy more than doubled between 2000 and 2022, it still left billions of people without life's essentials, while rapidly pushing Earth's life-supporting systems further beyond safe limits.
For the first time, researchers have created an annual global dashboard that tracks 21st century trends in social shortfall and ecological overshoot, and reveals the extent to which wealthy countries drive most of the overshoot while poorer countries bear the brunt of deprivation.
The co-authors of the study, Andrew Fanning, Research & Data Analysis Lead at Doughnut Economics Action Lab (DEAL) and Visiting Research Fellow at the Sustainability Research Institute at the University of Leeds, and Kate Raworth, co-founder of DEAL and Senior Teaching Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, analysed trends across 35 indicators from 2000 to 2022 using the "Doughnut" framework** of social and planetary boundaries.
They say progress on tackling human deprivation must speed up fivefold to meet global goals by 2030, while ecological damage must reverse at nearly twice the current pace to safeguard a stable planet by mid-century.
Key findings:
Economic growth has been far outpacing progress in ending poverty: between 2000 and 2022 global GDP more than doubled, but reductions in human deprivation were modest. At current rates, the world is far off track to eliminate critical shortfalls in food, health, education, and housing by 2030.
Ecological overshoot has been worsening: by 2022 humanity had already breached at least six of nine planetary boundaries. Repairing the damage requires reversing course nearly twice as fast as the current rate of overshoot.
Stark inequalities: the richest 20% of countries (home to 15% of people) are responsible for over 40% of ecological overshoot, while the poorest 40% (home to 42% of people) experience more than 60% of global deprivation.
The researchers emphasise the urgent need to move beyond GDP as the measure of success, and reorient economies to create a "safe and just" future—where social needs are met within Earth's ecological limits. They have created an interactive webpage* that visualises the study results to support policymakers and practitioners striving to achieve this goal, which will be updated annually to continually monitor progress towards achieving humanity's social and ecological targets.
Andrew Fanning said: 'Our analysis shows that despite rapid global economic growth, humanity is still leaving billions of people in deprivation while pushing Earth beyond its safe limits. The world is out of balance — we urgently need economies designed to deliver both human wellbeing and planetary health.'
Kate Raworth said: 'Tracking the Doughnut's global trend reveals a stark reality: the fixation on pursuing endless GDP growth - especially in the richest of countries - is fast driving the world away from, not towards, a thriving future. It is time to focus instead on creating economies that are regenerative and distributive by design, for this will be the hallmark of twenty-first century progress.'
