Researchers have developed a novel virtual model for simulating how astronauts in future Moon base operations might interact with each other and with their environment, with preliminary simulations revealing potential opportunities to boost the chances of a successful mission. Raymond Vera and colleagues at George Mason University in Virginia, USA, present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS One on May 27, 2026.
A primary goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s Artemis program is to build a permanent base on the Moon for on-the-surface astronaut missions. The success of future Moon base operations will depend on how astronauts interact with each other and with the lunar environment.
To aid planning and risk assessment for such missions, Vera and colleagues developed a novel model that simulates the interplay of cognitive, social, emotional, and environmental factors during Moon base operations. The model incorporates known lunar properties and challenges, as well as prior findings on team dynamics and psychological well-being from past crewed space missions and studies of teams in extreme Earth environments.
In the simulations, virtual astronauts are randomly given different professional skills, personality traits, physical health, and other characteristics. They adapt over time in response to interpersonal dynamics and environmental conditions, they get more efficient at performing routine tasks, and they advance in skill level. In addition to expected mission-related tasks, they sometimes face unexpected challenges, such as broken equipment, moonquakes, and intense radiation events. The simulations also include interactions between astronauts and lunar rovers.
The researchers ran tens of thousands of such simulations and analyzed the outcomes. They found increasing crew size helped to optimize advancement in professional skill levels and boosted chances of teamwork-enhancing personality compatibility. Meanwhile, factors such as longer mission duration and lack of astronaut replacements introduced psychological stress that decreased performance on mission tasks.
On the basis of their findings, the researchers conclude that simulating space mission team dynamics could aid planning to optimize mission success in future lunar exploration. Further research could improve on these simulations, such as by including physiological effects of extended space missions and delays in communication with Earth.
The authors add: "As humanity prepares to establish a permanent presence on the Moon, understanding human behavior becomes just as important as understanding engineering systems. This research demonstrates how agent-based modeling can simulate the complex interactions between astronauts, teams, and the extreme conditions of space to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of future lunar missions."
In your coverage, please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS One: https://plos.io/3Ray5Ri
Citation: Vera R, Berea A, Kennedy WG (2026) Lunar base agent-based modeling - A benchmark for simulating crewed space missions. PLoS One 21(5): e0348882. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0348882
Author countries: USA.
Funding: GMU ORIEI Award no. 102264.
