Human societies could lose the ability to respond to worsening climate change, scientists have warned.
With global warming set to overshoot 1.5°C and a record-breaking El Niño climate event expected, experts say a catastrophic "Hothouse Earth" scenario may be closer than we think.
They argue that escalating environmental changes are only half of the story - as these changes could also "derail" our capacity to cut emissions and adapt.
The researchers, from the University of Exeter and the Strategic Climate Risk Initiative (SCRI), say "derailment risk" should be included in climate policies to ensure humanity retains the ability to act.
"While climate models don't currently predict a 'Hothouse' scenario, tipping points in the Earth system - such as melting ice sheets and Amazon rainforest dieback - could create a cascade of accelerating change," said Dr James Dyke, from the University of Exeter.
"Existing analysis usually focusses on how natural systems respond to pressures including greenhouse gas emissions, but we argue that this overlooks the social dimension.
"Worsening climate shocks should lead to stronger climate action - but instead they could weaken our social, political and economic capacity to respond.
"With the planet under increasing strain, we argue that maintaining and expanding these collective capacities is vital."
The authors warn that trust and institutions are far easier to destroy than rebuild, so the Hothouse threshold may be closer than physical indicators suggest.
"When we talk about climate resilience, we usually think of things like energy grids and transport networks, but we also depend on the social institutions that underpin our complex societies," said Laurie Laybourn, of SCRI and the University of Exeter.
"Social threats have generally been missing from climate risk assessments and policies.
"We argue that social, political and economic resilience must feature at the heart of new approaches to the unfolding realities we now face."
'Doom loops'
Hothouse Earth refers to global warming above 5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, with extreme impacts such as prolonged droughts and heatwaves, crop failures and dramatic sea-level rise.
The paper identifies climate-driven risks including debt "doom loops", political fragmentation, rising military spending and falling aid - all of which could weaken environmental stewardship.
The authors call for policies that can handle the "duress" brought by a more chaotic climate. These should simultaneously protect populations while reducing emissions, so that what societies do to stay safe from the symptoms of climate change also accelerates action on the causes.
Dr Jesse Abrams, from Exeter's Green Futures Solutions team, added: "We are already seeing how worsening climate change can harm economies and polarise societies.
"We need to identify and limit 'derailment' risks, and reject the notion that there will come a day when what we do no longer matters."
The paper, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, is entitled: "Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth."
